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Eredivisie

Ajax - Excelsior

09/19/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Ajax
1.8
Total xG
3.4
Excelsior
1.7
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
xG 分解
AJAEXC

Ajax

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均4球)
+0.57
状态上升 (4 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
+0.57
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.36
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.54倍)
-0.32
防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.23
Steven Berghuis替补席 (1球, 3助攻)
Tolu Arokodare替补席 (2球, 1助攻)

Excelsior

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-1.18
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.67
防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均2.2球)
-0.56
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.11
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.11

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.9球)
+1.39
+1.39
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

39%

平局

25%

客胜

36%

进球数

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

双重机会

主胜或平局

64%

客胜或平局

61%

非平局

75%

双方进球

68%

32%

关键因素
  • Ajax averaged 10.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • High scoring venue: The last 5 matches at the Johan Cruijff Arena produced an average of 5.2 goals
  • Both teams are calculated to score with a 68% probability according to the model
风险因素
  • Defensive vulnerability: Excelsior concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away match
  • Historical hurdle: Ajax failed to win either of the last 2 head-to-head matches against Excelsior
概述

Ajax (4th place, 13 points) hosts Excelsior (7th place, 10 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena

Eredivisie match on September 19, 2026, 8:00 PM

Ajax aims to close the gap to the top of the table

近期状态

Ajax form: WWLWW

Excelsior form: LWWDL

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Ajax is in strong form with two consecutive wins

Excelsior suffered a defeat against FC Utrecht in their last match

统计数据

Ajax averages 1.81 goals scored per match this season

Excelsior concedes an average of 1.89 goals in away matches

Ajax is strong at home with 1.84 goals scored per game

Both teams scored in 24 out of 36 matches for Ajax

历史交锋

2 head-to-head matches in the database

1 win for Excelsior and 1 draw

Last match ended in a 2-2 draw on February 1, 2026

Excelsior has historically performed well in recent direct encounters

关键球员

Kasper Dolberg has 2 goals and 2 assists in 5 appearances

Oscar Gloukh stands out with 1 goal and 3 assists

Irakli Yegoian has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists for Excelsior

Not in squad for the home side: Steven Berghuis and Tolu Arokodare

门将

Marc-André ter Stegen started 5 matches in goal for Ajax

Stijn van Gassel has played 6 games this season for Excelsior

Ajax kept 11 clean sheets overall this season

Excelsior secured 6 clean sheets during this campaign

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Johan Cruijff Arena

An average of 5.2 goals were scored in the last 5 matches at this venue

All of these 5 matches ended with both teams scoring

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