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Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - Werder Bremen

08/30/2026, 01:30 PM

4 : 1
预期进球
SC Freiburg
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Werder Bremen
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
SFWB

SC Freiburg

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.53倍)
-1.72
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.26
状态上升 (2.6 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.26
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第15位, 相差8位)
+0.06
Johan Manzambi未进大名单 (5球, 4助攻)
Philipp Treu替补席 (1球, 2助攻)

Werder Bremen

防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.68
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第7位, 相差8位)
-0.08
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
Jens Stage未进大名单 (10球, 2助攻)
Romano Schmid未进大名单 (4球, 8助攻)
Yukinari Sugawara未进大名单 (0球, 6助攻)
Jovan Milosevic未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Cameron Puertas未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
55%进球产出缺失 (仅30%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.8球)
+1.35
+1.35
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

48%

平局

29%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

52%

非平局

71%

双方进球

是

50%

否

50%

关键因素
  • Bremen's weakened squad: Only 31% of the threat available without Jens Stage, Romano Schmid, Yukinari Sugawara, Jovan Milosevic, and Cameron Puertas
  • Freiburg averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Total dominance in head-to-head matches: Freiburg won all of the last four meetings against Bremen with a clean sheet
风险因素
  • Fatigue factor for Freiburg with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • The mathematically calculated probability for a home win is only 48%
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
概述

SC Freiburg host Werder Bremen at the Europa-Park Stadion

Bundesliga match on August 30, 2026, 3:30 PM

Season opener for both teams

近期状态

Freiburg show positive momentum with form LWLWW and 3 wins in their last 5 matches

Werder Bremen struggle with negative form WDLLL and 3 consecutive defeats

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Freiburg average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded at home

Bremen score 1.06 goals and concede 1.71 goals on average per away game

Home statistics point to a stable Freiburg defense

历史交锋

Clear advantage for Freiburg in the historical record

Four wins from four head-to-head matches with a goal record of 10:0

The last meeting ended in a 1:0 win for Freiburg

关键球员

Igor Matanovic scored 11 goals this season

Derry Scherhant shows rising form with 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Not nominated: Johan Manzambi (5 goals, 4 assists) and Philipp Treu (1 goal, 2 assists)

门将

Mio Backhaus is in goal for Freiburg

Karl Hein starts for Bremen and holds a season average rating of 7.6

Both sides rely on solid goalkeeping performances

影响因素

Freiburg play on grass at the Europa-Park Stadion

Bremen travel with a long break of 106 days since their last match

Freiburg played their last match just 3 days ago

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