比赛报告 →
FC Bayern München – VfB Stuttgart5 : 1
模型为何这样判断
FC Bayern München
2.68
总 xG
4.08
VfB Stuttgart
1.41
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | FC Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.61倍) | +1.22 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.8球) | −0.19 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.05 | |
| Leon Goretzka未进大名单 (5球, 4助攻) | ||
| Jamal Musiala未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| Josip Stanisic替补席 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| Jonathan Tah替补席 (2球, 2助攻) | ||
| Jamie Leweling替补席 (7球, 9助攻) | ||
| Chris Führich未进大名单 (7球, 7助攻) | ||
| Bilal El Khannouss替补席 (4球, 5助攻) | ||
| Chema Andrés替补席 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| 28%进球产出缺失 (仅68%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.6球 vs 总体2球) |
关键因素
- High home win probability of 64% according to the model, with 2.68 expected goals for Bayern
- Impressive historical dominance for Bayern with 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-head matches and a 19:3 goal record
- Bayern's immense tactical dominance with an average of 67% possession and 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
风险
- Stuttgart is weakened by the absence of key players like Jamie Leweling and Chris Führich, leaving only 69% of goal threat available
- Bayern's defense has been vulnerable, conceding 2.0 goals on average recently compared to their season average of 1.17
- Stuttgart's goalkeeper Fabian Bredlow starts without any match practice this season
全部概率
赛果
FC Bayern München64%
平局19%
VfB Stuttgart18%
进球
大于 1.592%
小于 1.58%
大于 2.577%
小于 2.523%
大于 3.558%
小于 3.542%
双重机会
FC Bayern München或平局83%
VfB Stuttgart或平局36%
非平局81%
双方均进球
是71%
否29%
最可能的比分
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
2:2
6%
3:0
5%
3:2
5%
5:1
最终比分
首发阵容
FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
FC Bayern München
- 1 M. Neuer
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 3 M. Kim
- 19 A. Davies
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 17 M. Olise
- 11 N. Brown
- 14 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 9 H. Kane
VfB Stuttgart
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 24 J. Chabot
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
- 21 G. Prömel
- 6 A. Stiller
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 26 D. Undav
- 8 T. de Melo Tomás
替补
- 22 A.Ibrahimovic
- 42 L. Karl
- 8 T. Bischof
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 21 H. Ito
- 40 J. Urbig
- 4 J. Tah
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 39 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
- 30 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 9 E. Demirović
- 27 B. Bouanani
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 16 A. Karazor
- 20 L. Stergiou
- 18 J. Leweling
- 33 M. Funk
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