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Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - FSV Mainz 05

09/06/2026, 01:30 PM

0 : 5
预期进球
Hamburger SV
1.2
Total xG
2.5
FSV Mainz 05
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
HSFM0

Hamburger SV

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.46倍)
-1.88
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.03
Fábio Vieira替补席 (7球, 5助攻)
Ransford Königsdörffer未进大名单 (5球, 2助攻)
Albert Sambi Lokonga替补席 (5球, 0助攻)
Bakery Jatta替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
90%进球产出缺失 (仅25%可用)

FSV Mainz 05

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.24
状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.19
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.07
Paul Nebel未进大名单 (5球, 2助攻)
Danny da Costa替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Silvan Widmer未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
Dominik Kohr未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
14%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.8球)
+1.31
+1.31
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

33%

平局

30%

客胜

37%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

63%

客胜或平局

67%

非平局

70%

双方进球

是

53%

否

47%

关键因素
  • Only 25% of the goal threat available, without Fábi Vieira, Ransford Königsdörffer, Albert Sambi Lokonga, and Bakery Jatta
  • Hamburger SV averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches with a counter-attacking approach
  • Nadiem Amiri guides the Mainz midfield with an outstanding season rating of 7.41
风险因素
  • Away weakness of the Mainz defense with an average of 1.56 goals conceded per away match
  • FSV Mainz 05 averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession
  • Limited data on similar weather conditions
概述

Hamburger SV host FSV Mainz 05 at the Volksparkstadion

Bundesliga match on September 6, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams are searching for their first win of the season

Mainz sit in 12th place with 1 point, while Hamburg are in 17th place with 0 points

近期状态

Hamburger SV shows a stable form trend (Stable) and scores consistently with around 1.3 goals per game

FSV Mainz 05 has a positive form trend (Positive) and is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)

Both teams have 2 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Hamburg scored 1.18 goals and conceded 1.59 goals on average last season

Mainz averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded

HSV scored 1.19 and conceded 1.05 goals on average at home

Mainz conceded 1.56 goals on average in away matches

历史交锋

Two recent head-to-head matches between the clubs

Hamburger SV lead with 1 win and 1 draw

The last direct meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on February 20, 2026

Hamburg scored 5 goals in these matches, while Mainz scored 1

关键球员

Nicolás Capaldo stabilizes the HSV midfield with a season rating of 6.84

Albert Grønbæk provides creative sparks with a rating of 6.98

For Mainz, Nadiem Amiri dictates play with 12 goals and a strong rating of 7.41

Striker Phillip Tietz shows rising form with 2 goals in his last five games

门将

Daniel Heuer Fernandes plays for HSV with a season average rating of 6.87 and 6 clean sheets

Alexander Schwolow starts in goal for FSV Mainz 05

影响因素

Home advantage for Hamburger SV at the Volksparkstadion on grass

The venue historical average stands at 2.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of the 5 previous matches at this stadium

准备开始了吗？

创建账户，探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。