比赛报告 →
FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
FC Köln
1.91
总 xG
3.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.23
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.9球) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍) | −0.37 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球) | +0.17 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.17 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.01 | |
| Alessio Castro-Montes未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻) | ||
| Tom Krauß替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| Franck Honorat未进大名单 (2球, 6助攻) | ||
| Wael Mohya未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| Kevin Stöger未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 31%进球产出缺失 (仅64%可用) |
关键因素
- Squad Impact: Franck Honorat, Wael Mohya, and Kevin Stöger are not starting, leaving only 64% of active goal threat available
- Form gap: Gladbach have suffered 4 consecutive losses, conceding an average of 3.2 goals per game in recent matches
- Model prediction: FC Köln enter as favorites with a 52% win probability and 1.91 expected home goals
风险
- Defensive vulnerability for Köln: FC Köln conceded an average of 2.8 goals in recent matches
- Gladbach's away record: Borussia Mönchengladbach concede an average of 1.93 goals per away match this season
全部概率
赛果
FC Köln52%
平局25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach23%
进球
大于 1.583%
小于 1.517%
大于 2.561%
小于 2.539%
大于 3.538%
小于 3.562%
双重机会
FC Köln或平局77%
Borussia Mönchengladbach或平局48%
非平局75%
双方均进球
是62%
否38%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
首发阵容
FC Köln 4-3-1-2 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 28 S. Sebulonsen
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 3 B. Sosa
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 6 E. Skhiri
- 37 L. Maina
- 47 M. Moore
- 10 S. El Mala
- 30 M. Bülter
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 M. Nicolas
- 14 D. Hashioka
- 4 K. Diks
- 5 J. Leszczyński
- 29 J. Scally
- 16 P. Sander
- 10 F. Neuhaus
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 38 H. Bolin
- 25 R. Hack
- 3 I. Lidberg
替补
- 7 G. Waldschmidt
- 2 J. Schmied
- 5 T. Krauß
- 20 R. Zieler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 14 G. Mensah
- 15 I. Rondić
- 11 R. Heskey
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 36 W. Mohya
- 18 S. Machino
- 2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 33 D. Batz
- 22 Y. Konoplia
- 27 F. Fleck
- 47 Z. Uno
- 20 D. Herold
- 34 M. Nguefack
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