Ligue 1
Brest - Toulouse
01/25/2026, 04:15 PM
预期进球
1.0
2.4
1.4
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
22%
平局
32%
客胜
46%
进球数
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
21%
双重机会
主胜或平局
54%
客胜或平局
78%
非平局
68%
双方进球
是
51%
否
49%
关键因素
- Massive weakening of Brest's offense: 33% of their season's goals, including top scorer Romain Del Castillo, are missing due to injury
- Toulouse in ascending form: Their recent goal average (2.2) clearly surpasses their season average (1.61), while Brest is stagnating
- Direct matchup of counter-attacking teams: Toulouse's more efficient offense has a statistical advantage against a decimated Brest attack
风险因素
- Brest's home strength: Despite significant absences, Brest is solid at home (only 1.1 goals conceded per game)
- Tactical neutralization: Two teams with a similar counter-attacking style and low ball possession could lead to a game with few chances and a draw
概述
Brest (11th place, 22 points) hosts Toulouse (8th place, 26 points) at the Stade Francis-Le Ble. The Ligue 1 match takes place on January 25, 2026, at 5:15 PM. It's a mid-table clash with Toulouse arriving with a slight advantage in the standings.
近期状态
Brest: WWLWL - 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses
Toulouse: DWWLW - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
Toulouse shows slightly better form in the last five games, while Brest has been inconsistent. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Offensively, Toulouse is slightly stronger with an average of 1.61 goals per game compared to Brest's 1.33. Defensively, Toulouse is also more stable, conceding an average of 1.28 goals, while Brest concedes 1.61. At home, Brest averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Toulouse averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded in away games.
历史交锋
In the last 5 direct duels, Brest has the upper hand with 3 wins to Toulouse's 1, with one draw. The goal difference is 10:5 in favor of Brest. However, Toulouse won the last encounter 2-0.
关键球员
Key players for Brest include Ludovic Ajorque (2 goals, 5 assists) and Kamory Doumbia (4 goals, 2 assists). For Toulouse, Yann Gboho (5 goals, 4 assists), Frank Magri (5 goals, 1 assist), and Santiago Hidalgo, who has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, are crucial.
门将
The goalkeeper matchup is Grégroire Coudert for Brest versus Guillaume Restes for Toulouse. Brest has kept 5 clean sheets this season, while Toulouse has 6. Coudert has made 9 appearances, while Restes has played in 18 matches.
影响因素
At Stade Francis-Le Ble, there's an average of only 2.2 goals per game, and both teams scored in just 20% of matches. Brest has won 4 of 10 games on their home grass pitch (14:11 goals). Toulouse has won 2 of 6 away games on grass (6:7 goals).