Ligue 1
Brest - Olympique Marseille
02/20/2026, 07:45 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.6
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
32%
平局
30%
客胜
38%
进球数
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
双重机会
主胜或平局
62%
客胜或平局
68%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
54%
否
46%
关键因素
- Marseille's superior offense (2.18 goals/game) meets a vulnerable Brest defense (1.55 goals conceded/game)
- The historical record clearly favors Marseille, who won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a goal difference of 14:3
- Tactical contrast: Marseille's attack-minded style (5.4 shots on target/game) against Brest's counter-attacking approach (39% possession)
风险因素
- Marseille's defense is out of form, conceding an average of 2.6 goals in recent games, well above their season average of 1.43
- Brest is very stable defensively at home, allowing only an average of 1.08 goals per game at the Stade Francis-Le Ble
- The visitors are winless in their last four games, showing a negative form trend
概述
Brest (12th place, 27 points) hosts Olympique Marseille (4th place, 40 points) at the Stade Francis-Le Ble
The Ligue 1 match is on February 20, 2026, at 8:45 PM
Marseille aims to solidify its position in the top 4, while Brest is in the middle of the table
The mathematical analysis slightly favors the visitors with 38% probability, compared to 32% for a home win
近期状态
Brest's form across all competitions (last 5 games): L L D W D
They have secured 1 win, 2 draws, and suffered 2 losses
Olympique Marseille's form across all competitions (last 5 games): W L D L D
Their record is identical with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches
However, Brest is unbeaten in their last two games, while Marseille is winless in their last four
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Olympique Marseille has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 2.18 goals per game, while Brest averages 1.32
Defensively, Marseille is slightly more stable with 1.32 goals conceded per game compared to Brest's 1.55
Brest is much stronger defensively at home, conceding only 1.08 goals per home game
Marseille is very dangerous on the road, scoring an average of 2.11 goals in away matches
历史交锋
In the last 5 direct encounters, Marseille has a clearly dominant record
The visitors won 4 of these matches, while Brest was victorious only once
The goal difference is 14:3 in favor of Olympique Marseille
The last meeting ended in a decisive 3-0 victory for Marseille
关键球员
Romain Del Castillo is a key player for Brest with 7 goals and 2 assists
Ludovic Ajorque stands out as a playmaker with 3 goals and 7 assists
Kamory Doumbia has also contributed 5 goals this season
For Marseille, Mason Greenwood is the standout performer with 14 goals and 4 assists
Amine Gouiri has 5 goals and 2 assists to his name
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is an important organizer in midfield with 3 assists this season
门将
Grégoire Coudert is in goal for Brest
His team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Gerónimo Rulli is the goalkeeper for Olympique Marseille
His team has also managed to keep a clean sheet 6 times this season
影响因素
Brest shows a strong defensive performance at their home ground, Stade Francis-Le Ble
They concede an average of only 1.08 goals per game at home
The last five matches at this stadium have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in only one of these five matches