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Ligue 1

Rennes - Toulouse

02/28/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Rennes
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Toulouse
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
RENTOU

Rennes

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.08
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.34倍)
+0.03
Kader Meïté未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均2.2球 vs 总体1.7球)

Toulouse

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.34
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.23
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
-0.17
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.10
Aron Dønnum未进首发 (3球, 4助攻)
Frank Magri未进首发 (5球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.6球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.33
+0.33
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

27%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

73%

双方进球

53%

47%

关键因素
  • Rennes' resurgence with two consecutive wins meets Toulouse's four-game winless streak
  • Rennes' strong home defense (only 0.86 goals conceded/game) will test Toulouse's potent away attack (1.44 goals/game)
  • The mathematical analysis clearly favors Rennes with a 51% win probability
风险因素
  • Toulouse is offensively weakened by the absences of Aron Dønnun (3 goals/4 assists) and Frank Magri (5 goals/1 assist), with only 69% of their goal-scoring threat available
  • The historical record is clearly against Rennes, who have failed to win any of the last five encounters against Toulouse (3 losses, 2 draws)
概述

Rennes (6th place, 37 points) host Toulouse (10th place, 31 points) at Roazhon Park

A mid-table clash in Ligue 1 on February 28, 2026, 5:00 PM

Rennes aims to stay in contention for European spots with a victory

近期状态

Rennes form: LLLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

After three consecutive losses, Rennes won their last two matches

Overall, the team has 2 wins and 3 losses from the last five games

Toulouse form: WLLDD

Toulouse are winless in their last four matches

The visitors have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games

统计数据

Rennes scores an average of 1.61 goals per game and concedes 1.52

At home, Rennes is defensively strong, conceding only 0.86 goals per game

Toulouse has a goal record of 1.45 goals for and 1.18 against per game

Away from home, Toulouse concedes an average of 1.22 goals

An average of 3.4 goals have been scored in the last 5 games at Roazhon Park

历史交锋

Rennes has failed to win in the last 5 direct encounters

Toulouse won 3 times, with 2 draws

The goal difference also favors Toulouse at 8:4

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw

关键球员

Estéban Lepaul is Rennes' top striker with 11 goals this season

Mousa Tamari has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this season

Valentin Rongier is a key player in midfield with a high season rating of 7.09

Yann Gboho is Toulouse's most dangerous player with 6 goals and 4 assists

Defender Charlie Cresswell also shows attacking qualities with 3 goals and 2 assists

Pape Demba Diop has proven valuable with 1 goal and 1 assist in just 5 games

门将

Rennes' goalkeeper Brice Samba has kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches

Guillaume Restes of Toulouse has 8 clean sheets in 22 appearances

影响因素

Rennes demonstrates a clear home advantage, conceding only 0.86 goals per home game on season average

Matches at Roazhon Park are often high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five games

In 4 of the last 5 home matches for Rennes, both teams have scored

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