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Ligue 1

Le Havre - Paris Saint Germain

02/28/2026, 08:05 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Le Havre
1.0
Total xG
2.7
Paris Saint Germain
1.7
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
xG 分解
LHPSG

Le Havre

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.65倍)
-0.80
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第1位, 相差12位)
-0.13
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.07
主场表现强势 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1球)

Paris Saint Germain

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.61倍)
+0.55
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.13
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.11
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第13位, 相差12位)
+0.09
Ousmane Dembélé未进首发 (8球, 4助攻)
Senny Mayulu未进首发 (3球, 4助攻)
João Neves未进首发 (5球, 1助攻)
34%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体2.4球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.33
+0.33
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

21%

平局

27%

客胜

52%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

48%

客胜或平局

79%

非平局

73%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Class difference in attack: PSG scores an average of 2.26 goals per game, Le Havre only 0.87
  • Clear H2H dominance: PSG has won 4 of the last 5 encounters, with a goal difference of 14:5
  • Strong current form of PSG: According to the analysis, the visitors are currently scoring even more frequently (2.8 goals per game) than their season average
风险因素
  • Weakened attack for PSG: Due to the absences of Ousmane Dembélé, Senny Mayulu, and João Neves, only 63% of the usual goal threat is available
  • High workload for PSG: The visitors had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Le Havre's defensive fortress: The home team concedes an average of only 0.65 goals at the Stade Océane
概述

Le Havre (13th place, 26 points) host league leaders Paris Saint Germain (1st place, 54 points) at the Stade Océane

Ligue 1 match on February 28, 2026, 9:05 PM

The roles are clearly defined, with PSG entering the match as clear favorites

The mathematical analysis supports this with a 52% win probability for the visitors

近期状态

Le Havre's form has been mixed with two wins, one draw, and two losses from their last five matches (Form: DLWWL)

Paris Saint Germain is in better shape, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss (Form: WLWWD)

PSG is unbeaten in two games, while Le Havre lost their last match

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

PSG has one of the strongest attacks in the league, averaging 2.26 goals per game, while Le Havre struggles offensively with 0.87 goals per game

However, Le Havre is very strong defensively at home, conceding an average of just 0.65 goals per home game

PSG averages 2.2 goals scored away from home, but also concedes 1.5 goals per away match

历史交锋

The head-to-head record speaks clearly for PSG

In the last five encounters, the Parisians have won four times, with one draw

Le Havre has not won a single game

The goal difference is 14:5 in favor of Paris Saint Germain, who also won the last meeting 3-0

关键球员

For Le Havre, forward Issa Soumaré stands out with 6 season goals and 2 assists, supported by midfielder Rassoul Ndiaye (3 goals, 3 assists)

In defense, Gautier Lloris is a key player

For PSG, forwards Bradley Barcola (8 goals, 1 assist) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (4 goals, 3 assists) are crucial

In midfield, Vitinha pulls the strings with 7 assists this season

门将

Le Havre's goalkeeper is Mory Diaw

His team has kept 6 clean sheets this season

For PSG, Matvey Safonov is in goal

The Parisian defense has managed to keep a clean sheet in 12 league games

影响因素

Le Havre benefits from a strong home advantage, especially in defense, with only 0.65 goals conceded per game at the Stade Océane

The last five matches at the stadium have averaged 1.8 goals per game

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