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Ligue 1

Lorient - Auxerre

03/01/2026, 04:15 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Lorient
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Auxerre
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
LORAUX

Lorient

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.10
排名优势 (第9位 vs 第16位, 相差7位)
+0.05
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.01
Arsène Kouassi未进首发 (2球, 5助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1.4球)

Auxerre

防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.47
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.74倍)
-0.13
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第9位, 相差7位)
-0.08
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.07

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.31
+0.31
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

48%

平局

28%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

52%

非平局

72%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Home strength vs. away weakness: Lorient's solid home defense (1.0 goals conceded/game) meets Auxerre's vulnerable away defense (2.0 goals conceded/game)
  • Drastic form difference: Lorient has won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Auxerre has only won one and is in a form crisis
  • Offensive discrepancy: Lorient scores almost twice as many goals per game on average (1.39) as Auxerre (0.74), which has failed to score in over half of its league games
风险因素
  • Historical record: The head-to-head record does not favor Lorient, as Auxerre has won 2 of the last 5 encounters (1 loss)
  • Numerous absences: Lorient has a long list of injured or doubtful players, which could affect their squad depth and performance
概述

Lorient, in 9th place with 32 points, hosts Auxerre, 16th with 17 points

The Ligue 1 match will take place on March 1, 2026, at 5:15 PM at the Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Lorient aims to solidify its mid-table position, while Auxerre needs crucial points in the relegation battle

The mathematical analysis favors Lorient with a 48% probability of winning

近期状态

Lorient form (all competitions): WWLWD

In the last five matches, they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Auxerre form (all competitions): LDDWL

Auxerre has managed only 1 win in their last five games, along with 2 draws and 2 losses

The home team is in significantly better form

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Lorient scores an average of 1.39 goals per game, while Auxerre averages only 0.74 goals

At home, Lorient is defensively solid, conceding an average of just 1.00 goal

In contrast, Auxerre is very vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game

Auxerre has failed to score in 13 of their 23 league matches, highlighting their offensive weakness

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, the record is slightly in favor of Auxerre

Auxerre won 2 matches, Lorient 1, with 2 draws

The goal difference is perfectly balanced at 5:5 goals

The last meeting was won by Auxerre with a score of 1-0

关键球员

For Lorient, Pablo Pagis (8 season goals), Bamba Dieng (4 goals, 1 assist), and Jean-Victor Makengo (3 goals, 2 assists) are the key offensive players

For Auxerre, Lassine Sinayoko is the most important attacker with 6 goals and 3 assists

He is supported by Kévin Danois and Danny Namaso, each with 2 goals and 1 assist

门将

In goal for Lorient is Yvon Mvogo, who has been involved in 5 clean sheets this season

Auxerre's goal is kept by Donovan Léon, whose team has also kept 5 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers have similar season statistics

影响因素

Lorient is very strong on their home artificial turf, with a record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and only one loss

Auxerre has only played one match on artificial turf so far, which ended in a draw

The last 5 home games at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir averaged 2.4 goals per game

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