比赛报告 →
Real Madrid – Real Sociedad4 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Real Madrid
2.63
总 xG
3.71
Real Sociedad
1.08
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.59倍) | +1.76 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.1球) | +0.35 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | −0.11 | |
| 排名优势 (第2位 vs 第10位, 相差8位) | +0.10 | |
| 排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第2位, 相差8位) | −0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.06 | |
| Gonzalo García未进大名单 (6球, 1助攻) | ||
| Brahim Díaz替补席 (1球, 6助攻) | ||
| Raúl Asencio未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| Orri Óskarsson替补席 (9球, 0助攻) | ||
| Ander Barrenetxea替补席 (3球, 5助攻) | ||
| Carlos Soler替补席 (4球, 3助攻) | ||
| 10%进球产出缺失 (仅92%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.6球) |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Real Madrid's strong home offense averaging 2.05 goals meets the visitors' shaky defense conceding 2.14 goals per away game on average
- Tactical dominance: Real Madrid averaged 5.0 shots on target with 61% possession in recent matches
- Historical dominance: The hosts remain unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head matches, celebrating 4 wins
风险
- Real Madrid's goal production has slowed down recently to 1.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.2
- High defensive vulnerability for Real Sociedad with an average of 2.14 goals conceded per away game
- Squad depth tested for Real Madrid with 6 players sidelined including A. Tchouaméni and F. Mendy
全部概率
赛果
Real Madrid70%
平局18%
Real Sociedad12%
进球
大于 1.589%
小于 1.511%
大于 2.572%
小于 2.528%
大于 3.551%
小于 3.549%
双重机会
Real Madrid或平局88%
Real Sociedad或平局30%
非平局82%
双方均进球
是62%
否38%
最可能的比分
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
4:1
5%
2:2
5%
首发阵容
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 18 A. Carreras
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 20 B. Silva
- 15 A. Guler
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 7 V. Júnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 31 J. Martín Vicente
- 17 S. Gómez
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 14 T. Kubo
- 24 L. Sučić
- 12 J. Ochieng
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
替补
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 26 S. Mestre Sánchez
- 29 J. Cestero Sancho
- 33 M. Rivas Lagos
- 36 A. Ciria Flores
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 9 O. Óskarsson
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 28 A. Lebarbier Null
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
- 26 I. Aguirre Basurko
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
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