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Valencia – Real Betis0 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Valencia
1.50
总 xG
2.64
Real Betis
1.14
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Valencia | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| 状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.26 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球) | +0.13 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.06 | |
| Luis Rioja替补席 (3球, 6助攻) | ||
| Diego López未进大名单 (4球, 1助攻) | ||
| José Gayà替补席 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Filip Ugrinic替补席 (0球, 3助攻) | ||
| Eray Cömert未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| Abde Ezzalzouli未进大名单 (10球, 8助攻) | ||
| Héctor Bellerín替补席 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| Marc Roca替补席 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| 18%进球产出缺失 (仅74%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.8球) |
关键因素
- Valencia is currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.4) according to advanced stats
- Squad impact for Real Betis: Key attacker Abde Ezzalzouli (10 goals, 8 assists) is missing from the lineup
- Home advantage prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 44% probability for a Valencia home win
风险
- Valencia faces a short recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Vulnerable away defense: Real Betis concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away match
- Squad depth reduced for Valencia: Key players Luis Rioja (3 goals, 6 assists) and Diego López (4 goals, 1 assist) are missing
全部概率
赛果
Valencia44%
平局29%
Real Betis27%
进球
大于 1.576%
小于 1.524%
大于 2.549%
小于 2.551%
大于 3.527%
小于 3.573%
双重机会
Valencia或平局73%
Real Betis或平局56%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是54%
否46%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
最终比分
首发阵容
Valencia 5-4-1 · Real Betis 4-2-3-1
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 39 R. Sato
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 9 H. Duro
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 3 D. Llorente Ríos
- 16 D. Gómez
- 23 H. Firpo Adames
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 9 J. Hernández Suárez
替补
- 6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 10 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 36 I. Córdoba Sánchez
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 29 A. Panach Olmo
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 15 A. Dieng
- 38 J. Durá i Soler
- 14 I. Losada Aragunde
- 11 F. García Torres
- 33 P. García Fernández
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 4 Natan
- 19 T. Parrott
- 40 A. de Pablo Casado
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 31 M. González Pallarés
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