比赛报告 →
Real Sociedad – Espanyol2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Real Sociedad
1.93
总 xG
2.95
Espanyol
1.02
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Real Sociedad | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| 防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.1球) | +0.42 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | +0.16 | |
| 状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | +0.16 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.11 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | −0.11 | |
| Takefusa Kubo替补席 (2球, 4助攻) | ||
| Carlos Romero未进大名单 (6球, 3助攻) | ||
| Ludovic Taillandier未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| 42%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用) |
关键因素
- Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 57% for Real Sociedad
- Offensive upward trend: Espanyol currently scores more goals with an average of 1.8 than their season average of 1.3
- Historical dominance: Real Sociedad did not lose any of the last four head-to-head matches against Espanyol
风险
- Fatigue: Real Sociedad has only 3 days of rest since their last match compared to Espanyol with 7 days
- Stagnant offense: Real Sociedad's goal production is recently at only 1.2 goals on average compared to their season average of 1.6
- Low threat: The hosts averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
全部概率
赛果
Real Sociedad57%
平局25%
Espanyol18%
进球
大于 1.581%
小于 1.519%
大于 2.557%
小于 2.543%
大于 3.534%
小于 3.566%
双重机会
Real Sociedad或平局82%
Espanyol或平局43%
非平局75%
双方均进球
是56%
否44%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
首发阵容
Real Sociedad 4-4-2 · Espanyol 4-2-3-1
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 31 J. Martín Vicente
- 17 S. Gómez
- 24 L. Sučić
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 9 O. Óskarsson
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Espanyol
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 16 V. Drkušić
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 24 T. Dolan
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
替补
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 19 M. Sarr
- 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
- 27 G. Carrera Zarranz
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 5 C. Riedel
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 17 J. Carreras Pagès
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 31 L. Serred
- 32 J. Lopez Galvez
- 27 A. Timera
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