比赛报告 →
Sevilla – Atlético de Madrid1 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Sevilla
1.49
总 xG
2.57
Atlético de Madrid
1.08
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Sevilla | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第4位, 相差9位) | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.08 | |
| 状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | +0.08 | |
| 排名优势 (第4位 vs 第13位, 相差9位) | +0.05 | |
| Djibril Sow未进大名单 (5球, 4助攻) | ||
| Oso未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| José Ángel Carmona替补席 (1球, 3助攻) | ||
| 66%进球产出缺失 (仅34%可用) | ||
| Antoine Griezmann未进大名单 (7球, 4助攻) | ||
| Koke 替补席 (2球, 2助攻) | ||
| Robin Le Normand未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 23%进球产出缺失 (仅90%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.9球) |
关键因素
- Critical squad impact: Sevilla has only 34% of their usual goal-scoring strength available, missing Djibril Sow, Oso, and José Ángel Carmona
- Scoring trend divergence: Sevilla is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their seasonal average (1.3), while Atlético's goal production has slowed down to 1.6 from a seasonal average of 1.9
- Tactical metrics: Sevilla averaged 4.2 shots on target with 41.6% possession recently, while Atlético averaged 4.4 shots on target with 49.2% possession
风险
- Heavily depleted Sevilla squad with only 34% active starting XI offensive power
- Vulnerable Atlético away defense, conceding 1.93 goals per away match on average
- Atlético's historical upper hand with 3 victories out of the last 4 direct meetings
全部概率
赛果
Sevilla45%
平局29%
Atlético de Madrid26%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.547%
小于 2.553%
大于 3.526%
小于 3.574%
双重机会
Sevilla或平局74%
Atlético de Madrid或平局55%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
1:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Sevilla 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 6 L. Agoume
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 30 M. Sierra Ortega
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 9 R. Ure
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 11 A. Lookman
- 7 K. Lee
- 10 A. Rodríguez
替补
- 12 A. Sangante
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 28 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 34 I. Ortín Muñoz
- 27 N. Guillén Peguero
- 37 I. Sow
- 26 M. Castillo Rodríguez
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 2 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 21 C. Romero
- 12 C. Martín Domínguez
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 29 M. Llorente Cubo
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
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