比赛报告 →
Real Madrid – Málaga4 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Real Madrid
2.01
总 xG
2.91
Málaga
0.90
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Real Madrid | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.31倍) | +0.55 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.6球) | −0.47 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球) | +0.12 | |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | −0.09 | |
| Álvaro Carreras 替补席 (2球, 3助攻) |
关键因素
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 62% probability for a home win
- Offensive dominance: Real Madrid averaged 7.0 shots on target per match recently
- Form advantage: The hosts are on a winning run with 5 consecutive victories
风险
- Limited data on historical head-to-head matches between these two teams
- Limited data on the detailed player statistics for the visitors
全部概率
赛果
Real Madrid62%
平局23%
Málaga15%
进球
大于 1.580%
小于 1.520%
大于 2.556%
小于 2.544%
大于 3.533%
小于 3.567%
双重机会
Real Madrid或平局85%
Málaga或平局38%
非平局77%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
11%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
4:0
最终比分
首发阵容
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · Málaga 4-4-2
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 7 V. Júnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
替补
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 15 A. Guler
- 13 A. Lunin
- 16 I. Konaté
- 20 B. Silva
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 29 J. Cestero Sancho
- 31 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 33 M. Rivas Lagos
- 36 A. Ciria Flores
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 19 J. Díaz Espósito
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 7 H. Abaida
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 24 J. Lobete Cienfuegos
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 32 J. Fernández Martin
- 28 J. Otu
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