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Deportivo Alavés – Villarreal1 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Deportivo Alavés
1.24
总 xG
2.50
Villarreal
1.26
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Deportivo Alavés | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第3位, 相差11位) | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.14 | |
| 状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | +0.14 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.47倍) | +0.09 | |
| 排名优势 (第3位 vs 第14位, 相差11位) | +0.07 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.04 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.01 | |
| Denis Suárez替补席 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Victor Parada未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻) | ||
| Alberto Moleiro替补席 (10球, 5助攻) | ||
| Ayoze Pérez替补席 (5球, 4助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.8球) |
关键因素
- Strong offenses: Both teams were active recently, averaging 5.2 shots on target per match for Alavés and 5.4 for Villarreal
- Villarreal's rising trend: The visitors are scoring more recently, averaging 2.2 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.8
- Balanced prediction: The model calculates an almost identical win probability of 35% for Villarreal and 35% for Alavés
风险
- Vulnerable away defense: Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match this season
- Shorter recovery time: Villarreal enter the match with only 5 days of rest since their last game, compared to 8 days for Alavés
- Missing key players: Alberto Moleiro (10 goals, 5 assists) and Ayoze Pérez (5 goals, 4 assists) are missing from Villarreal's squad
全部概率
赛果
Deportivo Alavés34%
平局30%
Villarreal35%
进球
大于 1.573%
小于 1.527%
大于 2.546%
小于 2.554%
大于 3.524%
小于 3.576%
双重机会
Deportivo Alavés或平局65%
Villarreal或平局66%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:0
最终比分
首发阵容
Deportivo Alavés 5-3-2 · Villarreal 4-4-2
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 18 M. Rodriguez Ulacia
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 15 L. Boyé
Villarreal
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 8 J. Foyth
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 19 N. Pépé
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 18 P. Gueye
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 9 G. Mikautadze
替补
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 2 N. Valentini
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 2 L. Costa
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 24 N. Saliba
- 26 Carlos Macià
- 5 A. Diatta
- 3 A. Freeman
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