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Celta de Vigo – Athletic Club0 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Celta de Vigo
1.09
总 xG
2.14
Athletic Club
1.05
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Celta de Vigo | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.63倍) | −0.84 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | +0.51 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.12 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | −0.12 | |
| 排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第6位, 相差6位) | −0.07 | |
| 排名优势 (第6位 vs 第12位, 相差6位) | +0.03 | |
| Iago Aspas替补席 (5球, 3助攻) | ||
| Javi Rueda替补席 (2球, 6助攻) | ||
| Fer López未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 30%进球产出缺失 (仅70%可用) | ||
| Gorka Guruzeta替补席 (10球, 3助攻) | ||
| Mikel Jauregizar替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| Unai Gómez未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 15%进球产出缺失 (仅100%可用) |
关键因素
- Celta de Vigo is squad-weakened and must cope without key offensive contributors Iago Aspas, Javi Rueda, and Fer López, leaving only about 70% of their usual goal threat
- Athletic Club showed more direct play in recent matches, averaging 4.6 shots on target per game compared to Celta de Vigo's 3.2
- Both offenses are struggling recently as Celta de Vigo averages 1.3 goals (season average 1.5) and Athletic Club is down to 0.8 goals (season average 1.2)
风险
- Both Celta de Vigo and Athletic Club have to cope with a short preparation window of only 3 days since their last match
- Athletic Club showed defensive vulnerabilities on the road last season, conceding a high average of 1.95 goals per away game
- Celta de Vigo created very little threat recently, averaging just 3.2 shots on target per match
全部概率
赛果
Celta de Vigo34%
平局33%
Athletic Club32%
进球
大于 1.565%
小于 1.535%
大于 2.536%
小于 2.564%
大于 3.517%
小于 3.583%
双重机会
Celta de Vigo或平局68%
Athletic Club或平局66%
非平局67%
双方均进球
是45%
否55%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
11%
0:1
11%
2:1
7%
0:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 2 C. Starfelt
- 4 A. Faye
- 15 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 16 H. Sotos
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 14 A. Laporte
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
替补
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 29 Y. Lago Amil
- 39 J. El-Abdellaoui
- 8 M. Román González
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 27 Q. Ribes
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 19 A. Boiro Boiro
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 28 P. Canales Urtasun
- 25 Á. Dias Fernandes
- 31 J. Louisjean
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