比赛报告 →
Racing Santander – Elche3 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Racing Santander
1.05
总 xG
2.53
Elche
1.48
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Racing Santander | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍) | +0.53 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.23 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.17 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | −0.17 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.2球) | −0.14 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均) | −0.14 | |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | +0.04 | |
| Tete Morente替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 48%进球产出缺失 (仅62%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Elche is missing key player Tete Morente, leaving only 63% of their usual goal threat available
- Tactical focus: Racing Santander recently played counter-oriented with 42% average possession and 4.0 shots on target, while Elche averaged 2.8 shots on target
- Mathematical model predicts an away win with a 45% probability and expects 1.48 goals for Elche compared to 1.05 for Racing Santander
风险
- Limited data availability for head-to-head history and home player form statistics
- Elche shows severe defensive issues on the road with an average of 2.53 goals conceded per away match
- The absence of Tete Morente significantly weakens the visitor's offense to 63% of seasonal goals
全部概率
赛果
Racing Santander25%
平局29%
Elche45%
进球
大于 1.573%
小于 1.527%
大于 2.546%
小于 2.554%
大于 3.525%
小于 3.575%
双重机会
Racing Santander或平局55%
Elche或平局75%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是52%
否48%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
3:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Racing Santander 4-2-3-1 · Elche 5-4-1
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 2 A. Mantilla Pérez
- 4 J. Hernando Riol
- 16 F. González Molino
- 17 J. Salinas Viadero
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 8 G. Puerta Molano
- 11 A. Martín García
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 21 M. Zabiri
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 23 V. Chust García
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 11 G. Karabinaite
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 8 M. Aguado Pallares
- 29 A. Houary Jeddoub
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
替补
- 36 S. Martínez Montero
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 14 M. Gueye
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 18 M. Prati
- 34 D. Díaz Cacho
- 1 S. Eriksson
- 30 C. Sánchez Martos
- 38 H. Sañudo
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 19 G. Diangana
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 43 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 26 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 24 A. Osorio
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 30 Á. Padilla
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