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La Liga

Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano

09/12/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 1
预期进球
Real Madrid
2.4
Total xG
3.4
Rayo Vallecano
1.0
最可能的比分

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

8%
xG 分解
RMRV

Real Madrid

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.42倍)
+0.87
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.58
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第8位, 相差6位)
+0.07
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.06
Dean Huijsen替补席 (2球, 2助攻)

Rayo Vallecano

排名劣势 (第8位 vs 第2位, 相差6位)
-0.06
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.02
Jorge de Frutos未进大名单 (10球, 1助攻)
Isi Palazón未进大名单 (3球, 3助攻)
47%进球产出缺失 (仅71%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.5球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.43
+0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

67%

平局

20%

客胜

13%

进球数

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

双重机会

主胜或平局

87%

客胜或平局

33%

非平局

80%

双方进球

59%

41%

关键因素
  • Squad disadvantage for the guests: Jorge de Frutos (10 goals) and Isi Palazón are not available for Rayo Vallecano
  • Host's offensive dominance: Real Madrid averaged 8.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Strong home indicator: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 67%
风险因素
  • Fatigue factor: Real Madrid have only 4 days of rest compared to their opponent's 7 days
  • Vulnerable away defense: Rayo Vallecano concede an average of 1.81 goals per away match this season
概述

Real Madrid host Rayo Vallecano at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

La Liga match on September 12, 2026, 9:00 PM

Real Madrid currently sit in 4th place with 9 points

Rayo Vallecano travel as 14th-placed side with 4 points

Clear favorite role for the hosts in their home stadium

近期状态

Real Madrid show strong form with a WWWLW record

The team registered four wins and one defeat in their last five matches

Rayo Vallecano display inconsistent form with a LLDLW run

The guests recorded only one win alongside three defeats and one draw

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Real Madrid score an average of 2.03 goals per game this season

In home matches the host's defense concedes only 0.73 goals on average

Rayo Vallecano average 1.08 goals per game

The guest's defense struggles away from home with an average of 1.81 goals conceded

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches Real Madrid won twice with 2 draws

Rayo Vallecano are still waiting for an away win in this matchup

The total goal difference stands at 7 to 5 goals in favor of the home team

The last direct meeting ended in a 2:1 home victory on February 1, 2026

关键球员

Kylian Mbappé shines this season with 25 goals and 5 assists

Vinicius Junior contributed 16 goals and 5 assists so far

Jude Bellingham is also a key performer with 6 goals and 4 assists

For the visitors Sergio Camello stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist

Álvaro García delivered 4 goals and 5 assists so far

Unai López added 4 assists to the team's tally this season

门将

Thibaut Courtois played 32 matches and contributed to 14 clean sheets

Emil Audero starts in goal for Rayo Vallecano

The visitor's defense secured 12 clean sheets in total this season

影响因素

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu saw an average of 4.0 goals in recent matches

The historical rate for over 2.5 goals at this stadium stands at 80%

Both teams scored in 60% of the recent home games at this venue

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