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La Liga

Atlético de Madrid - Osasuna

09/16/2026, 05:00 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
Atlético de Madrid
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Osasuna
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
ADMOSA

Atlético de Madrid

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.29倍)
-0.32
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.20
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第11位, 相差6位)
+0.04
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.03
Giuliano Simeone替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Dávid Hancko替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
12%进球产出缺失 (仅73%可用)

Osasuna

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.14
防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.13
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第5位, 相差6位)
-0.08
Ante Budimir替补席 (4球, 0助攻)
100%进球产出缺失 (仅17%可用)
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3球)
+0.48
+0.48
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

42%

平局

28%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

58%

非平局

72%

双方进球

58%

42%

关键因素
  • Only 18% of goal threat available without Ante Budimir
  • Osasuna concede an average of 2.36 goals per away game
  • Both teams averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
风险因素
  • Atlético de Madrid with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Riyadh Air Metropolitano averages only 2.0 goals per game
  • M. Gómez Bordonado is missing in midfield due to injury
概述

Atlético de Madrid (5th place, 10 points) host Osasuna (11th place, 7 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano

La Liga match on September 16, 2026, 7:00 PM

The hosts enter as favorites to keep up with the top teams in the standings

近期状态

Atlético de Madrid show a form of DWLLW, recently winning 3-0 against Real Sociedad

Osasuna travel with a form of DWWLL, recently losing 0-2 against Espanyol

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The home team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

The away team also had 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

统计数据

Atlético de Madrid average 1.62 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded per home game

Osasuna concede an average of 2.36 goals and score 1.18 goals per away game

At the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, an average of 2.0 goals are scored per match

The model predicts a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

Historically, there have been 4 direct duels between both teams

Atlético de Madrid dominated these encounters with 3 wins, while Osasuna won 1 match

The last encounter on May 12, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for the away side Atlético de Madrid

The overall goal difference stands at 4:3 in favor of Atlético de Madrid

关键球员

Álex Baena scores 0.77 goals per 90 minutes with an average rating of 7.19

Alejandro Grimaldo stands out as a defender with 1 season goal, 1 assist, and a 7.19 rating

Kang-in Lee contributes 1 goal and 1 assist in midfield with a 7.2 average rating

Raúl García has 1 assist this season with an average rating of 6.75

Abel Bretones has a defensive rating of 6.62

Lucas Torró stabilizes the midfield with a 6.68 average rating

门将

Jan Oblak guards the goal for Atlético de Madrid with a 6.78 rating and 8 home clean sheets

Aitor Fernández is in goal for Osasuna but has no season appearances in the statistics yet

Atlético recorded 14 clean sheets overall this season, while Osasuna stands at 7 clean sheets

影响因素

Home advantage clearly favors Atlético de Madrid with only 0.71 goals conceded per home game

Osasuna struggle away from home, conceding 2.36 goals per match

Historically, an average of 2.0 goals are scored per game at this venue

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