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La Liga

Málaga - Villarreal

09/17/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 3
预期进球
Málaga
1.4
Total xG
3.1
Villarreal
1.7
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
MÁLVIL

Málaga

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.46倍)
-0.96
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.58
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.18
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1 赛季平均)
-0.15
主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1球)
全员可用

Villarreal

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.44倍)
+0.95
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.56
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.09
Gerard Moreno替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Georges Mikautadze替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Nicolas Pépé替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
100%进球产出缺失 (仅41%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.1球)
+0.57
+0.57
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

29%

平局

26%

客胜

45%

进球数

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

双重机会

主胜或平局

55%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

74%

双方进球

62%

38%

关键因素
  • Huge loss of quality for Villarreal: only 42% of regular goal threat is available with Gerard Moreno, Georges Mikautadze, and Nicolas Pépé missing
  • Villarreal dominated possession in recent matches and averaged 6.2 shots on target
  • The mathematical model predicts an away win for Villarreal with a probability of 45%
风险因素
  • Villarreal enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Málaga averaged only 1.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match
概述

Málaga (18th place, 3 points) host Villarreal (19th place, 2 points) at the Estadio La Rosaleda

La Liga match on September 17, 2026, 7:30 PM

A direct relegation battle in the lower part of the table

近期状态

Málaga's current form is LDLDD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Villarreal show a form of DLLLL with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Both teams are still searching for their first victory of the season

统计数据

Málaga scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.50 per match this season

The hosts' goalscoring has stalled recently with 0.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.0

Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away game while scoring 1.85

Estadio La Rosaleda saw an average of 1.0 goals per match across 2 games

关键球员

Pablo Martínez stands out in Málaga's midfield with a rating of 7.05

Chupe leads the hosts' attack with one goal this season

Villarreal's Tajon Buchanan averages a rating of 6.81 in midfield with a rising form trend

Renato Veiga stabilizes the visitors' defense with a season rating of 6.94

门将

Alfonso Herrero guards the goal for Málaga with a rating of 7.01

Péter Gulácsi played once in goal for Villarreal this season with a strong rating of 8.88

Both goalkeepers aim for greater stability in this crucial match

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio La Rosaleda

The stadium's venue stats point to a low-scoring trend with an average of 1.0 goals per game

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