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La Liga

Deportivo Alavés - Valencia

09/15/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Deportivo Alavés
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Valencia
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

2:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
DAVAL

Deportivo Alavés

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.39
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均2.2球)
+0.21
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.21
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第20位, 相差16位)
+0.11
10%进球产出缺失 (仅83%可用)

Valencia

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.69倍)
-0.55
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.32
状态下滑 (0.2 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.31
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.31
排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第4位, 相差16位)
-0.16
防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.15
100%进球产出缺失 (仅0%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.3球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3球)
+0.48
+0.48
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

28%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

72%

双方进球

50%

51%

关键因素
  • Form discrepancy: Alavés earned 10 points in their last 5 games while Valencia travel with four consecutive defeats
  • Tactical dominance: Alavés averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Valencia's average of 2.0
  • Model forecast: Mathematical analysis favors the home team with a calculated win probability of 51%
风险因素
  • Fatigue: Deportivo Alavés with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Away weakness: Valencia concede an average of 2.00 goals per away game
概述

Deportivo Alavés host Valencia at the Estadio de Mendizorroza

La Liga match on September 15, 2026, 8:00 PM

Alavés sit in 4th place with 10 points

Valencia occupy the 20th position with only 1 point

The home team enters this clash as the favorite

近期状态

Alavés show stable form with a WDWWL record

The hosts recorded three wins and one draw in their last five matches

Valencia are in deep trouble with a DLLLL record

The visitors have suffered four consecutive defeats

统计数据

Alavés average 1.16 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per season

Valencia average 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded

The visitors struggle heavily on the road

Valencia concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match

历史交锋

Balanced history over the last 4 meetings

Both teams have 1 win each alongside 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 victory for Valencia

A total of 5 goals have been scored by each side in these matches

关键球员

Lucas Boyé shines for Alavés with 4 goals and a 7.54 average rating

Ángel Pérez has already contributed 3 assists for the hosts

Guido Rodríguez is a key figure for Valencia with a 7.14 rating

门将

Antonio Sivera stars in goal for Alavés with a 7.12 average rating

Stole Dimitrievski defends Valencia's goal with a 6.64 rating

Both goalkeepers have made 5 appearances this season

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio de Mendizorroza

Matches at this venue historically produce an average of 3.0 goals

Alavés' home advantage is bolstered by Valencia's poor away record

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