La Liga
Elche - Real Madrid
09/15/2026, 07:30 PM
预期进球
1.2
3.0
1.8
1:1
12%1:2
10%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
Elche
Real Madrid
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
26%
平局
26%
客胜
48%
进球数
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
双重机会
主胜或平局
52%
客胜或平局
74%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
60%
否
40%
关键因素
- Modeled favorites: Mathematical analysis calculates a 48% win probability for Real Madrid
- Increased offensive power: Real Madrid scored more goals recently with an average of 2.8 per match compared to their season average of 2.2
- High shot frequency: Real Madrid averaged 9.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
风险因素
- High workload: Both teams play this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Defensive instability: Elche currently concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.62
概述
Elche (19th place, 2 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 12 points) at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
La Liga match on September 15, 2026, 8:30 PM
A clear battle between relegation fighters and title contenders
近期状态
Elche are winless in 5 games with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
Last result was a 1-1 draw against Athletic Club
Real Madrid recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games
Most recently they won 4-1 against Rayo Vallecano
Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Elche scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 1.50 goals per game this season
At home, the team conceded an average of only 0.83 goals per match
Real Madrid scored an average of 2.03 goals and conceded 0.92 goals
Away from home, Madrid scores an average of 2.00 goals per game
Both teams scored in 27 out of 38 matches for Elche
历史交锋
Real Madrid leads the head-to-head record with 1 win and 1 draw in 2 matches
The last direct encounter ended 4-1 for Real Madrid
The other match ended in a 2-2 draw
Real Madrid scored a total of 6 goals, while Elche scored 3
关键球员
Elche relies on Gonzalo Villar with a season average rating of 7.02
Tete Morente has already contributed 2 assists this season
Buba Sangaré has already scored 1 goal as a defender
Kylian Mbappé shines for Real Madrid with 6 goals, 1 assist, and an 8.11 rating
Arda Güler impresses with 1 goal, 2 assists, and a 7.88 rating
Vinicius Junior has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists so far
门将
Matías Dituro guards the goal for Elche with a season average rating of 6.11 and 8 clean sheets
Thibaut Courtois plays for Real Madrid, carrying a rating of 6.88 and 14 clean sheets
影响因素
The match takes place on natural grass at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
The stadium averages 3.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played here
Elche concedes an average of only 0.83 goals in their own stadium