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La Liga

Elche - Real Madrid

09/15/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 3
预期进球
Elche
1.2
Total xG
3.0
Real Madrid
1.8
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
ELCRM

Elche

小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.48
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第2位, 相差17位)
-0.22
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.06
防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.03
Fer Niño替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
52%进球产出缺失 (仅81%可用)

Real Madrid

防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.23
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.41倍)
+0.18
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.17
状态上升 (2.8 vs 2.2 赛季平均)
+0.17
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第19位, 相差17位)
+0.12
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.12
Jude Bellingham替补席 (3球, 2助攻)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3球)
+0.48
+0.48
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

26%

平局

26%

客胜

48%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

双重机会

主胜或平局

52%

客胜或平局

74%

非平局

74%

双方进球

60%

40%

关键因素
  • Modeled favorites: Mathematical analysis calculates a 48% win probability for Real Madrid
  • Increased offensive power: Real Madrid scored more goals recently with an average of 2.8 per match compared to their season average of 2.2
  • High shot frequency: Real Madrid averaged 9.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
风险因素
  • High workload: Both teams play this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Defensive instability: Elche currently concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.62
概述

Elche (19th place, 2 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 12 points) at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

La Liga match on September 15, 2026, 8:30 PM

A clear battle between relegation fighters and title contenders

近期状态

Elche are winless in 5 games with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Last result was a 1-1 draw against Athletic Club

Real Madrid recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Most recently they won 4-1 against Rayo Vallecano

Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Elche scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 1.50 goals per game this season

At home, the team conceded an average of only 0.83 goals per match

Real Madrid scored an average of 2.03 goals and conceded 0.92 goals

Away from home, Madrid scores an average of 2.00 goals per game

Both teams scored in 27 out of 38 matches for Elche

历史交锋

Real Madrid leads the head-to-head record with 1 win and 1 draw in 2 matches

The last direct encounter ended 4-1 for Real Madrid

The other match ended in a 2-2 draw

Real Madrid scored a total of 6 goals, while Elche scored 3

关键球员

Elche relies on Gonzalo Villar with a season average rating of 7.02

Tete Morente has already contributed 2 assists this season

Buba Sangaré has already scored 1 goal as a defender

Kylian Mbappé shines for Real Madrid with 6 goals, 1 assist, and an 8.11 rating

Arda Güler impresses with 1 goal, 2 assists, and a 7.88 rating

Vinicius Junior has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists so far

门将

Matías Dituro guards the goal for Elche with a season average rating of 6.11 and 8 clean sheets

Thibaut Courtois plays for Real Madrid, carrying a rating of 6.88 and 14 clean sheets

影响因素

The match takes place on natural grass at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

The stadium averages 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played here

Elche concedes an average of only 0.83 goals in their own stadium

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