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La Liga

Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano

09/19/2026, 12:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Osasuna
1.7
Total xG
2.9
Rayo Vallecano
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
OSARV

Osasuna

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.34
防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.17
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.13
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.13
全员可用

Rayo Vallecano

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.23
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.10
防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.09
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.1球)
+0.57
+0.57
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

27%

客胜

27%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

双重机会

主胜或平局

73%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

73%

双方进球

60%

40%

关键因素
  • Osasuna averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Rayo Vallecano currently scores more frequently with 1.8 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 1.5
  • Only 11% of Osasuna's seasonal goal production is currently active and available
风险因素
  • Osasuna has a shorter recovery period with only 3 days of rest before this match
  • Osasuna's goal production is currently stalling at 1.0 compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
  • Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away game
概述

Osasuna (13th place, 7 points) hosts Rayo Vallecano (11th place, 7 points) at the Estadio El Sadar

La Liga match on September 19, 2026, 2:00 PM

A balanced mid-table encounter is expected

近期状态

Osasuna shows inconsistent form with three consecutive defeats

Overall form across competitions is WWLLL

Rayo Vallecano presents a more stable run with two wins in their last five matches

Overall form across competitions is DLWLW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Osasuna scores an average of 1.16 goals and concedes 1.32 goals per match

Rayo Vallecano scores 1.08 goals and concedes 1.16 goals on average

Osasuna is defensively stronger at home, conceding only 0.89 goals per home game

Rayo Vallecano struggles away, conceding 1.81 goals per away match

历史交锋

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in total

Osasuna leads with 2 home wins

The last direct meeting ended in a 3-1 victory

关键球员

Ante Budimir leads Osasuna's attack with 4 goals and a 7.31 rating

Rubén García supports the attack with an average rating of 6.86

Sergio Camello stands out for Rayo Vallecano with 6 goals and a 7.46 rating

门将

Aitor Fernández played once for Osasuna with a 7.09 rating

Emil Audero features for Rayo Vallecano with a 7.01 rating

Osasuna has 7 clean sheets this season, while Rayo Vallecano has kept 12 clean sheets

影响因素

Osasuna's home advantage is highlighted by conceding only 0.89 goals per home game

The Estadio El Sadar averages 1.8 goals per match

The model predicts a 46% home win probability and 1.69 expected home goals

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