La Liga
Atlético de Madrid - Real Madrid
09/20/2026, 02:15 PM
预期进球
1.7
3.4
1.7
1:1
11%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
5%xG 分解
Atlético de Madrid
Real Madrid
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
38%
平局
25%
客胜
37%
进球数
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
66%
Under 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
44%
Under 3.5
56%
双重机会
主胜或平局
63%
客胜或平局
62%
非平局
75%
双方进球
是
68%
否
32%
关键因素
- Tactical focus: Atlético recently averaged 6.0 shots on target with 58% possession in past games
- Real Madrid proved highly clinical averaging 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a very tight derby with 1.71 expected home goals and 1.70 expected away goals
风险因素
- Low goal threat: According to the data only 23% of Atlético de Madrid's seasonal goal production is available
- Limited offensive power: Real Madrid's squad features only 19% of their usual goal production
概述
Atlético de Madrid hosts Real Madrid for the derby
The home team sits in 4th place with 13 points
The visitors are in 2nd place with 15 points
Prestigious La Liga clash on September 20, 2026, 4:15 PM
A battle to keep pace at the top of the table
近期状态
Atlético de Madrid enters with form WLLWW
Two consecutive wins achieved recently
Real Madrid travels with form WLWWW
The visitors secured three consecutive wins lately
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Atlético de Madrid averages 1.63 goals scored per match this season
Their defense concedes an average of only 1.16 goals
Real Madrid shines with an average of 2.03 goals scored per game
The visitors concede just 0.92 goals per match on average
In home games Atlético concedes only 0.71 goals on average
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches both teams have 2 wins each and 1 draw
The last encounter ended 2-3 in favor of Real Madrid on March 22, 2026
The recent head-to-head history shows an even balance of power
Goal difference stands at 10-8 in favor of Atlético de Madrid
关键球员
Álex Baena with 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.40
Kang-in Lee records 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.45
Jonathan David contributes 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.67
Kylian Mbappé impresses with 7 goals and 2 assists and a rating of 8.17
Jude Bellingham stands at 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.84
Vinicius Junior contributed 1 goal and 3 assists with a rating of 7.17 so far
门将
Jan Oblak has recorded 14 clean sheets for Atlético de Madrid
Thibaut Courtois has also secured 14 clean sheets
Oblak holds an average rating of 6.78
Courtois features a rating of 6.81
影响因素
At Riyadh Air Metropolitano games average 2.4 goals
The rate of both teams scoring at this venue stands at 20%
The match will be played on natural grass
Atlético benefits from home defensive strength conceding only 0.71 goals on average