Ligue 1
Toulouse - Olympique Marseille
03/07/2026, 08:05 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%0:0
10%0:1
9%1:2
8%1:0
8%xG 分解
Toulouse
Olympique Marseille
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
31%
平局
30%
客胜
39%
进球数
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
双重机会
主胜或平局
61%
客胜或平局
69%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
52%
否
48%
关键因素
- According to mathematical analysis, Olympique Marseille has a higher win probability of around 38% compared to Toulouse (31%)
- Olympique Marseille's offense is significantly stronger with an average of 2.13 goals per game compared to Toulouse (1.38 goals per game)
- Toulouse shows a negative form trend with only 0 wins and 2 draws in their last five games and stagnating goal production (0.5 goals recently)
风险因素
- Olympique Marseille concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
- Both teams show a negative form trend in goal production according to Advanced Stats
- A draw is calculated by the model with a 30% probability, indicating a close match
概述
Toulouse (11th place, 31 points) host Olympique Marseille (4th place, 43 points) at the Stadium de Toulouse. This Ligue 1 match is scheduled for March 7, 2026, 9:05 PM. Marseille is battling for a top spot in the league, while Toulouse is positioned in the mid-table.
近期状态
Toulouse's form across all competitions is DLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five games. Olympique Marseille's form is DLDLW, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches.
统计数据
Toulouse averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game. At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded. Olympique Marseille is offensively stronger with 2.13 goals per game, but more vulnerable with 1.38 goals conceded. Away, Marseille scores 2.11 goals but concedes 2.00 goals. For Toulouse, both teams scored in 10 of 24 games (BTTS), and 11 games had over 2.5 goals. For Marseille, there were BTTS in 12 of 24 games and 16 matches with over 2.5 goals. At the Stadium de Toulouse, the average total goals was 2.4, with 40% BTTS and 40% over 2.5 goals.
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse has not secured a win against Olympique Marseille, who recorded 2 victories, with 3 matches ending in a draw. The goal difference is 7:10 in favor of Olympique Marseille. The last encounter on November 29, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw.
关键球员
In Toulouse's starting lineup, Yann Gboho (6 goals, 4 assists, stable form), Aron Dønnum (3 goals, 4 assists, stable form), and Cristian Cáceres Jr. (1 goal, 0 assists, rising form) are important. Santiago Hidalgo (4G/3A) and Charlie Cresswell (3G/2A) are not in the squad, impacting goal threat. For Olympique Marseille, Mason Greenwood (14 goals, 4 assists, stable form), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (8 goals, 5 assists, stable form), and Igor Paixão (5 goals, 3 assists, declining form) are key players.
门将
Toulouse's goalkeeper, Guillaume Restes, played 24 games this season and kept 8 clean sheets. For Olympique Marseille, Gerónimo Rulli was in goal for 20 games and achieved 6 clean sheets.
影响因素
Toulouse averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded per home game. Olympique Marseille averages 2.11 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded away. The Stadium de Toulouse averages 2.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of games and over 2.5 goals in 40% of games.