比赛报告 →
Málaga – Espanyol1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Málaga
1.35
总 xG
2.78
Espanyol
1.43
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Málaga | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.66倍) | −0.68 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3球) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.32 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | −0.25 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.7球) | +0.17 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球) | −0.14 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.5 vs 0.9 赛季平均) | −0.11 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.01 | |
| 37%进球产出缺失 (仅76%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.1球 vs 总体0.9球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Critical squad impact: Espanyol's attacking threat is heavily depleted with only 21% of their active goal share available due to injuries
- Málaga's offensive struggles: The hosts averaged just 0.5 goals and 2.2 shots on target per match in recent outings
- Tight predictions: The model suggests a close matchup with a 34% probability for a home win and 38% for an away win
风险
- Depleted attack: Only 21% of Espanyol's season goal production is active due to squad availability issues
- Winless run: Málaga remain without a single victory after 7 league games (0 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses)
- Wet conditions: Light rain on the grass pitch at La Rosaleda could complicate passing and ball control
全部概率
赛果
Málaga34%
平局28%
Espanyol38%
进球
大于 1.578%
小于 1.522%
大于 2.553%
小于 2.547%
大于 3.530%
小于 3.570%
双重机会
Málaga或平局62%
Espanyol或平局66%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是58%
否42%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
首发阵容
Málaga 4-1-4-1 · Espanyol 4-2-3-1
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 20 F. Calero Villa
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
Espanyol
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 5 C. Riedel
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 24 T. Dolan
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
替补
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 7 H. Abaida
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 30 A. Céspedes Rubio
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 7 J. Puado Díaz
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 31 L. Serred
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 16 V. Drkušić
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