Super League
Luzern - Thun
07/25/2026, 06:30 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.9
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%xG 分解
Luzern
Thun
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
33%
平局
28%
客胜
39%
进球数
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
双重机会
主胜或平局
61%
客胜或平局
67%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
60%
否
40%
关键因素
- Form contrast: Luzern is undefeated in 5 matches (WWDWW), whereas Thun is winless in their last 5 games
- Offensive drive: Luzern averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in recent matches with 53.8% possession
- Historical dominance: Thun won all 3 recent head-to-head matches against Luzern, including a 2:1 win in February 2026
风险因素
- Severe squad crisis for Thun: Missing Elmin Rastoder (15 goals) and Kastriot Imeri (6 goals), only 9% of typical lineup strength is available
- Fatigue factor for Thun: The visitors had only 4 days of rest since their last match, compared to Luzern's 70 days
- Defensive vulnerability: Luzern conceded an average of 1.81 goals at home last season, while Thun conceded 1.35 away
概述
Luzern host Thun at the swissporarena
Super League match on July 25, 2026, 8:30 PM
The mathematical analysis predicts a tight game with an away win probability of 39%
近期状态
Luzern show strong form with the record WWDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Thun are winless in their last five matches with the record LLLDD
Luzern secured four wins and one draw recently
Thun registered three losses and two draws
统计数据
Luzern scored an average of 2.0 goals per game and conceded 1.74 last season
Thun averaged 2.11 goals scored per game and 1.37 conceded
In home games, Luzern scored 2.0 goals on average but conceded 1.81
Thun scored 2.06 goals on average in away matches while conceding 1.35
历史交锋
Thun dominated the last three head-to-head matches with three wins
The last encounter on February 28, 2026, ended in a 2:1 win for Thun
In total, Thun scored eight goals in these matches while Luzern scored three
关键球员
Matteo Di Giusto contributed 12 goals and 12 assists in 38 appearances
Oscar Kabwit scored 11 goals and provided 5 assists in 17 seasonal appearances
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira registered 7 goals and 3 assists in 15 games
Lucien Dähler scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in 19 games
Jan Bamert recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 34 appearances
Niklas Steffen made 36 appearances in goal and provided one assist
门将
Niklas Steffen played 36 games in goal for Thun last season, keeping 6 clean sheets
Simon Simoni played once in goal for Luzern at home last season
Luzern recorded 7 clean sheets in total, while Thun kept 6
影响因素
The match takes place on natural grass at the swissporarena
In the last 5 home games, there was an average of 3.6 goals scored per match
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home matches