Super League
Luzern - Basel
02/22/2026, 03:30 PM
预期进球
1.6
3.0
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
42%
平局
27%
客胜
31%
进球数
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
双重机会
主胜或平局
69%
客胜或平局
58%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
62%
否
38%
关键因素
- Form contrast: Luzern is unbeaten in 5 games and shows a clear upward trend, while Basel has won only 1 of their last 5 matches
- Home spectacle: Luzern's home games are extremely high-scoring (avg 5.0 goals in the last 5), which suits their strong offense (1.92 season goals)
- Mathematical favorites: The analysis favors Luzern with a 42% win probability and 1.64 expected goals
风险因素
- Vulnerable home defense: Luzern concedes an average of 1.93 goals per game at home, one of the weakest records in the league
- Historical advantage for Basel: Basel has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches and has historically often been the victor in this fixture
- Reduced offensive power for Basel: Due to absences, Basel has only about 65% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
概述
Luzern (8th place, 30 points) hosts Basel (4th place, 40 points) at Sportplatz Chrüzmatt
Super League match on February 22, 2026, 4:30 PM
The home team aims to stay connected to the mid-table, while Basel looks to solidify its position among the top teams
近期状态
Luzern is unbeaten in their last five matches, showing strong form (DDDWW)
In the last five games, they have recorded 2 wins and 3 draws
Most recently, the team celebrated two consecutive wins
Basel, on the other hand, is in a form crisis (LLWLD)
From their last five matches, they managed only 1 win and 1 draw, with 3 losses
统计数据
Luzern has a strong offense, averaging 1.92 goals per game, but is defensively vulnerable with 1.88 goals conceded
Especially at home, Luzern scores frequently (1.86 goals) but is also susceptible (1.93 goals conceded)
Basel is more stable defensively (1.2 goals conceded per game) but scores fewer goals (1.48)
In 19 of Luzern's 25 league games, both teams scored, compared to 16 of 25 for Basel
历史交锋
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Basel has the upper hand
Basel won 3 of these matches, while Luzern recorded only 1 victory, and 1 game ended in a draw
The goal difference also favors the visitors at 10:5
The last meeting was won by Basel with a score of 2:1
关键球员
At Luzern, Matteo Di Giusto is the key player with 9 goals and 10 assists
He is supported by Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira, who has contributed 7 goals this season
Julian Von Moos is also an important pillar in attack with 4 goals and 3 assists
Basel's offense is led by Xherdan Shaqiri, who has been directly involved in 20 goals (10 goals, 10 assists)
Dominik Schmid provides significant impetus from defense with 2 goals and 5 assists
Bénie Traoré has already scored 5 goals this season
门将
Pascal Loretz will be in goal for Luzern
His team has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Mirko Salvi will be guarding the goal for Basel
His team has managed to keep a clean sheet 7 times this season
影响因素
The Sportplatz Chrüzmatt has recently been a guarantee for spectacle
In the last five home games, there was an average of 5.0 goals per match
In all of these five games, both teams scored and there were always over 2.5 goals
Luzern will be playing on a grass pitch, which is their usual surface