比赛报告 →
St. Gallen – Thun3 : 4
模型为何这样判断
St. Gallen
2.54
总 xG
3.76
Thun
1.22
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | St. Gallen | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.8球) | +1.33 | +1.33 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍) | −0.88 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.24倍) | +0.78 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均2球) | −0.58 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球) | +0.11 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | −0.08 | |
| Valmir Matoshi未进大名单 (6球, 4助攻) | ||
| Michael Heule未进大名单 (2球, 7助攻) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Mathematical dominance: The prediction model calculates a 65% home win probability and 2.54 expected goals for St. Gallen
- Tactical superiority: St. Gallen recently dominated possession with 57% ball possession and averaged 7.8 shots on target per match
- Opponent's defensive instability: Thun's form trend is negative, having conceded an average of 3.2 goals in recent matches
风险
- High workload: Both teams enter the match with a short recovery period of only 3 days of rest since their last competitive fixture
- Squad depletion for Thun: Key players Valmir Matoshi (6 goals, 4 assists) and Michael Heule (2 goals, 7 assists) are missing from the lineup
全部概率
赛果
St. Gallen65%
平局19%
Thun16%
进球
大于 1.590%
小于 1.510%
大于 2.572%
小于 2.528%
大于 3.552%
小于 3.548%
双重机会
St. Gallen或平局84%
Thun或平局35%
非平局81%
双方均进球
是66%
否34%
最可能的比分
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
6%
2:2
6%
4:1
5%
3:4
最终比分
首发阵容
St. Gallen 3-1-4-2 · Thun 4-4-2
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 7 C. Witzig
- 31 D. Besio
- 14 A. Balde
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 19 J. Bamert
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 23 M. Bürki
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 16 J. Roth
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 9 F. Dursun
替补
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 47 E. Owusu
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 68 M. Heydari
- 37 L. Dähler
- 14 M. Käit
- 25 T. Spycher
- 20 R. Braschi
- 30 N. Maier
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 54 L. Passavant
- 80 S. Lengen
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