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Lausanne Sport – Zürich2 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Lausanne Sport
1.55
总 xG
2.64
Zürich
1.09
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Lausanne Sport | Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.8球) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍) | −0.92 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.8倍) | −0.58 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均2球) | −0.44 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.5 赛季平均) | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.14 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | −0.14 | |
| Nathan Butler-Oyedeji替补席 (4球, 3助攻) | ||
| Beyatt Lekoueiry未进大名单 (4球, 2助攻) | ||
| Jamie Roche替补席 (3球, 1助攻) | ||
| Kévin Mouanga未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 34%进球产出缺失 (仅68%可用) | ||
| Valon Berisha未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| Ilan Sauter替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.5球) |
关键因素
- Lausanne Sport dominated recent direct duels with 3 wins from the last 5 matches, including a 3-0 home win in April 2026
- Zürich concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away match this season, making their defense highly vulnerable
- The mathematical model favors Lausanne Sport with a home win probability of 47% and a 75% probability for the Double Chance home or draw
风险
- Nathan Butler-Oyedeji, Beyatt Lekoueiry, Jamie Roche, Kévin Mouanga are missing, only 68% of the usual attacking threat is available
- Lausanne Sport's goal production is faltering with 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.5
- Lausanne Sport averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
全部概率
赛果
Lausanne Sport47%
平局28%
Zürich25%
进球
大于 1.576%
小于 1.524%
大于 2.549%
小于 2.551%
大于 3.527%
小于 3.573%
双重机会
Lausanne Sport或平局75%
Zürich或平局53%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是54%
否46%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
2:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Lausanne Sport 4-3-3 · Zürich 4-1-4-1
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 2 B. Soppy
- 3 T. Fredricson
- 71 A. Sow
- 18 M. Poaty
- 80 S. Koné
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 16 N. Beloko
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
- 91 F. Mollet
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 3 S. Hodža
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 42 A. Hack
- 44 S. Walker
- 21 L. Schödler
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 19 P. Keny
替补
- 1 T. Castella
- 20 H. Abdallah
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 17 S. Traore
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 8 J. Roche
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 9 J. Perea Mendoza
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 29 D. Reverson
- 13 H. Lindner
- 48 D. Ihendu
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 22 C. Kablan
- 6 C. Fiorini
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