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Super League

Luzern - Basel

09/13/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 4
预期进球
Luzern
1.8
Total xG
3.3
Basel
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
LUZBAS

Luzern

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.09
防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
-0.08
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.04

Basel

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.37
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.22
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.22
Asane Sow未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅71%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.7球)
+1.24
+1.24
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

25%

客胜

31%

进球数

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

双重机会

主胜或平局

69%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

75%

双方进球

67%

33%

关键因素
  • Form disparity: Luzern remains unbeaten in their last 5 games, whereas Basel suffered two consecutive defeats recently
  • Luzern's efficient counter-tactics: The hosts averaged 5.4 shots on target with only 42% possession in recent matches
  • Significant squad impact: Basel misses playmaker Asane Sow, leaving them with only 71% of their active goals share
风险因素
  • Vulnerable away defense: Basel concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away match
  • Goalkeeper replacement: The injured Jonas Omlin has to be replaced by Mirko Salvi
  • Luzern's home defensive leaks: The hosts concede an average of 1.81 goals per home game
概述

Luzern hosts Basel at the swissporarena

Super League match on September 13, 2026, 4:30 PM

Luzern is in 6th place with 9 points, Basel is in 4th place with 10 points

A tight midfield battle is expected

近期状态

Luzern is unbeaten in 5 matches with the form DWDWD (2 wins, 3 draws)

Basel travels with the form WWDLL after consecutive defeats (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Luzern shows a more stable form curve

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Luzern consistently scores around 1.9 goals per game

Luzern concedes an average of 1.81 goals at home

Basel is currently scoring more frequently with 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.5

Basel concedes an average of 2.06 goals on their travels

历史交锋

The last 5 head-to-head matches show 2 wins for each team and 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a 4-2 win for Luzern

The historical goal difference is close at 8-10 in favor of Basel

关键球员

Matteo Di Giusto scored 3 goals and 1 assist in 7 games for Luzern (rating 7.37)

Andrejs Ciganiks has also scored 3 goals in 7 appearances with a rating of 7.24

For Basel, Zan Celar is the biggest threat with 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 games

门将

Karlo Letica is in goal for Luzern (rating 7.01, 7 clean sheets this season)

Mirko Salvi guards the net for Basel (rating 6.65, 9 clean sheets overall for the team)

影响因素

The swissporarena averages 3.0 goals per match

The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at 65%

Both teams to score is estimated at 67% probability

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