比赛报告 →
Grasshopper – Young Boys0 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Grasshopper
1.71
总 xG
4.04
Young Boys
2.33
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Grasshopper | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.9球) | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.51倍) | +0.69 | |
| 小样本 (4场) - 均值回归 | −0.36 | |
| 小样本 (4场) - 均值回归 | +0.23 | |
| 最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3球) | +0.22 | |
| 状态上升 (3 vs 2.3 赛季平均) | +0.22 | |
| 排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第2位, 相差8位) | −0.15 | |
| 排名优势 (第2位 vs 第10位, 相差8位) | +0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.08 | |
| 状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | +0.08 | |
| Samuele Bengondo未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| Nikolas Muci替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 16%进球产出缺失 (仅90%可用) | ||
| Stefan Bukinac替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 防守实力 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.9球) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均2.2球 vs 总体1.3球) |
关键因素
- Attacking form: Young Boys currently score more frequently (3.0 goals) than their season average (2.11 goals) and hold a 51% win probability with 2.33 expected goals
- High goal potential: Over 2.5 goals is calculated at a 77% probability, supported by Young Boys averaging 7.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Unbeaten run: Young Boys remain undefeated with 2 wins and 3 draws, while Grasshopper suffered 2 losses in their last five games
风险
- Away defensive vulnerability: Young Boys concede an average of 2.44 goals per away match
- Home defense weakness: Grasshopper conceded 34 goals in 21 home matches this season
全部概率
赛果
Grasshopper27%
平局22%
Young Boys51%
进球
大于 1.592%
小于 1.58%
大于 2.577%
小于 2.523%
大于 3.557%
小于 3.543%
双重机会
Grasshopper或平局49%
Young Boys或平局73%
非平局78%
双方均进球
是75%
否25%
最可能的比分
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
2:3
5%
0:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Grasshopper 4-3-3 · Young Boys 4-2-3-1
Grasshopper
- 1 M. Hübel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 44 B. Pllana
- 57 N. Rissi
- 24 K. Goudmijn
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 18 Y. Lee
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 30 S. Lauper
- 15 C. Zesiger
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 7 A. Virginius
- 99 S. Essende
替补
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 9 N. Muci
- 71 J. Hammel
- 11 G. Morandi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 25 J. Hilton
- 4 M. Jenz
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 17 S. Janko
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 9 M. Sene
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 34 E. Etoski
- 52 N. Tschanz
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