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Super League

Grasshopper - Lugano

03/01/2026, 03:30 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Grasshopper
1.0
Total xG
2.8
Lugano
1.8
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

10%

1:3

6%

0:3

6%
xG 分解
GRALUG

Grasshopper

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.61倍)
-1.07
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第3位, 相差8位)
-0.09
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.05

Lugano

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.27
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.16
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
-0.16
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第11位, 相差8位)
+0.07
客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1.7球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.82
+0.82
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

20%

平局

26%

客胜

54%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

46%

客胜或平局

80%

非平局

74%

双方进球

54%

46%

关键因素
  • Clear quality gap: Lugano (3rd) is fighting at the top, while Grasshopper (11th) is in a relegation battle, reflected in the 54% win probability for the visitors
  • Contrasting form trends: Lugano is unbeaten in five matches, whereas Grasshopper is waiting for a win for five games
  • Defensive vulnerability: Grasshopper's defense is one of the weaker in the league with 1.81 goals conceded per game, facing a potent Lugano attack (1.65 goals per game)
风险因素
  • Lugano's series of draws: Although unbeaten, Lugano has drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, indicating difficulties in closing out games
  • Head-to-head record: The last duel between the two teams ended 1-1, and 3 of the last 5 encounters were draws
概述

Grasshopper (11th place, 21 points) host Lugano (3rd place, 46 points) at Stadion Letzigrund

Super League match on March 1, 2026, 4:30 PM

The hosts are fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Lugano aims to solidify their position at the top

The mathematical analysis favors the visitors with a 54% win probability

近期状态

Grasshopper form: DDLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team is winless in 5 matches, with 3 draws and 2 losses

Their last game was a 1-2 home defeat against Zürich

Lugano form: DDDDW

The visitors are unbeaten in their last 5 games, but recorded 4 draws and 1 win

Their most recent outing was a 2-1 home victory over Lausanne Sport

统计数据

Offensively, Lugano is stronger with an average of 1.65 goals per game compared to Grasshopper's 1.31

A similar picture emerges defensively: Lugano concedes 1.19 goals per game, while Grasshopper concedes 1.81

Lugano is particularly dangerous away from home (1.7 goals per game), but also vulnerable (1.7 goals conceded per game)

For both teams, 17 games this season have seen both teams score

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Grasshopper has failed to win

Lugano won 2 times, while 3 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is slightly in favor of Lugano with 7:5

The last meeting in January 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

关键球员

For Grasshopper, Jonathan Asp Jensen (7 goals, 5 assists) and Luke Plange (8 goals, 3 assists) are the key figures in attack

For Lugano, striker Kevin Behrens (10 goals, 1 assist) and midfielders Anto Grgic (6 goals, 5 assists) and Daniel Dos Santos (3 goals, 9 assists) are crucial

门将

Justin Hammel is in goal for Grasshopper

This season, his team has kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches

For Lugano, Amir Saipi is the goalkeeper

His team has managed to keep a clean sheet 7 times in 26 games

影响因素

Stadion Letzigrund has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

In 4 of these 5 games, both teams scored

Grasshopper has a negative record at home with 1.27 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game

Lugano is strong offensively away from home (1.7 goals/game), but also defensively vulnerable (1.7 goals conceded/game)

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