比赛报告 →
Al Shabab – Al Riyadh3 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Al Shabab
2.13
总 xG
3.74
Al Riyadh
1.61
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Al Shabab | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.4倍) | +1.45 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.6球) | +0.37 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | +0.11 | |
| 状态上升 (1.4 vs 1 赛季平均) | +0.11 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.07 | |
| Abderrazak Hamdallah未进大名单 (6球, 2助攻) | ||
| Saad Balobaid未进大名单 (1球, 4助攻) | ||
| Ali Al-Azaizeh未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| Ali bin Hadi bin Mohammed Al Bulayhi未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 18%进球产出缺失 (仅79%可用) | ||
| Tozé未进大名单 (9球, 5助攻) | ||
| Yoann Barbet未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| 52%进球产出缺失 (仅58%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Critical squad impact: Al Riyadh must play without Tozé and Yoann Barbet, leaving only 58% of their usual goal threat available
- Offensive pressure: Al Shabab averaged 5.8 shots on target and 16.2 total shots in recent matches
- High-scoring model: Mathematical analysis predicts a high BTTS probability of 72% with 2.13 expected home goals
风险
- Increased fatigue: Al Shabab enters this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Defensive instability: Al Riyadh conceded an average of 2.35 goals per away game this season
- Squad limitations: Al Shabab is missing four key players, including Abderrazak Hamdallah and Saad Balobaid
全部概率
赛果
Al Shabab49%
平局23%
Al Riyadh28%
进球
大于 1.590%
小于 1.510%
大于 2.572%
小于 2.528%
大于 3.551%
小于 3.549%
双重机会
Al Shabab或平局72%
Al Riyadh或平局51%
非平局77%
双方均进球
是72%
否28%
最可能的比分
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
3:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Al Shabab 4-4-2 · Al Riyadh 4-1-4-1
Al Shabab
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 3 M. Barry
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 22 H. Al-Hammami
- 18 T. Partey
- 29 Y. Adli
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 2 Sultan Al-Essa
- 67 M. Alkhaibari
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 12 H. Yahya
- 6 A. Keita
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 43 B. Mensah
- 77 L. Curto Antunes
- 7 M. Hassan
替补
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 5 A. Makki
- 37 A. Saeed
- 23 A. Abdul Rahma
- 77 H. Al Dubais
- 16 H. Alsebyani
- 99 H. Al-Khorayef
- 15 L. Stojanović
- 2 M. Al Saeed
- 14 E. Bahri
- 16 F. Al-Sobhi
- 97 E. Adnan
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 17 H. Al Raqwani
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