比赛报告 →
Al Hazm – Al Shabab1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Al Hazm
2.01
总 xG
3.41
Al Shabab
1.40
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Al Hazm | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.45倍) | +1.04 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | +0.47 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.6球) | +0.19 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.10 | |
| 状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | +0.10 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.02 | |
| Fábio Martins未进大名单 (5球, 4助攻) | ||
| Nawaf Al-Habashi未进大名单 (4球, 2助攻) | ||
| Elias Mokwana未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Ahmed Al-Nakhli替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| L. Rosier未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 55%进球产出缺失 (仅49%可用) | ||
| 13%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用) |
关键因素
- Critical squad loss: Al Hazm faces major personnel issues with only 49.7% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Improved form: Al Shabab has averaged 1.8 goals in recent matches, exceeding their season average of 1.5
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 50% home win probability for Al Hazm
风险
- Away defensive weakness: Al Shabab concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game
- Defensive struggles at home: Al Hazm allowed an average of 1.5 goals per home game this season
- Historical scoring drought: Al Hazm has failed to score in their 2 previous head-to-head matches against Al Shabab
全部概率
赛果
Al Hazm50%
平局24%
Al Shabab26%
进球
大于 1.587%
小于 1.513%
大于 2.566%
小于 2.534%
大于 3.544%
小于 3.556%
双重机会
Al Hazm或平局74%
Al Shabab或平局50%
非平局76%
双方均进球
是66%
否34%
最可能的比分
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
首发阵容
Al Hazm 4-2-3-1 · Al Shabab 4-2-3-1
Al Hazm
- 23 I. Zaied
- 2 S. Al Rashed
- 4 S. Tanker
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 24 A. Bah
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 22 A. Al Dhuwayhi
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 7 E. Acolatse
- 9 A. Pululu
Al Shabab
- 1 M. Diaw
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 3 M. Barry
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 29 Y. Adli
- 22 H. Al-Hammami
- 11 D. Castelo Podence
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
替补
- 10 A. Sayoud
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 33 M. Al Ghamdi
- 8 M. Konate
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 95 J. Ateeq
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 24 A. Al Obod
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 2 M. Al Shwirekh
- 5 A. Makki
- 37 A. Saeed
- 94 M. Al Rajeh
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 99 H. Al-Khorayef
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