比赛报告 →
Al Fateh – Al Ahli0 : 4
模型为何这样判断
Al Fateh
1.26
总 xG
2.87
Al Ahli
1.61
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Al Fateh | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.43 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球) | −0.25 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.20 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.20 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.7 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | −0.17 | |
| 排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第6位, 相差9位) | −0.13 | |
| 排名优势 (第6位 vs 第15位, 相差9位) | +0.07 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.02 | |
| Eduard Spertsyan替补席 (2球, 2助攻) | ||
| 13%进球产出缺失 (仅82%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2.1球) |
关键因素
- Offensive form trend: Al Ahli scores consistently at around 2.2 goals per game, while Al Fateh's recent output dropped to 0.7
- Key player Ivan Toney: The visiting striker has scored an outstanding 7 goals in his last 5 appearances
- Mathematical prediction: Models estimate a 44% probability for an away win and expect 1.61 goals for Al Ahli
风险
- Defensive decline: Al Ahli conceded an average of 2.00 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 0.97
- Extreme conditions: The intense heat of 37.68°C during the match could heavily affect the game tempo
全部概率
赛果
Al Fateh28%
平局27%
Al Ahli44%
进球
大于 1.580%
小于 1.520%
大于 2.555%
小于 2.545%
大于 3.532%
小于 3.568%
双重机会
Al Fateh或平局56%
Al Ahli或平局72%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是59%
否41%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:4
最终比分
首发阵容
Al Fateh 5-4-1 · Al Ahli 4-2-3-1
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Šemper
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 17 M. Saadane
- 3 K. Boateng
- 78 A. Anwar Al-Suwailem
- 11 M. Batna
- 6 A. Al Hassan
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 10 L. Haraslín
- 9 A. Kanga
Al Ahli
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 15 S. Baattia
- 28 M. Demiral
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 30 Z. Aljohani
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 20 M. Gonçalves Martins
- 13 W. Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno
- 17 I. Toney
替补
- 19 R. Kelder
- 4 Z. Aljari
- 7 F. Al Zubaidi
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 87 S. Bin Mahmoud Al Tumbukti
- 88 O. Alothma
- 18 A. Al Fawaz
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 25 M. Al Sahihi
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
- 19 A. Bondarenko
- 21 A. Radif
- 3 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 16 E. Mendy
- 47 W. Saleh
- 2 Z. Al Hawsawi
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 62 A. Abdo
- 29 M. Yousef
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
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