Friendly International

Mexico - Peru

09/30/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
预期进球
Mexico
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Peru
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
MEXPER

Mexico

防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.51
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.07
Jesús Gallardo替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Johan Vásquez替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
82%进球产出缺失 (仅23%可用)

Peru

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.21
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.02
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

31%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

69%

双方进球

是

46%

否

54%

关键因素
  • Personnel shortage: Only 23% of Mexico's goal threat is available with Jesús Gallardo and Johan Vásquez missing
  • Defensive advantage: Mexico concedes only 0.33 goals per game on average compared to Peru's 2.4
  • Tactical edge: Mexico averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Peru's 2.6
风险因素
  • Mexico with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited data availability for historical head-to-head matches
  • Peru concedes an average of 2.33 goals in away matches
概述

Mexico faces Peru in an international friendly match

The game will be played at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

The mathematical model estimates a 47% probability of a home win for Mexico

近期状态

Mexico enters with a form of WWWLD consisting of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Peru shows a form of LDWLL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Mexico averages 1.78 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game this season

Peru concedes an average of 2.4 goals while scoring 1.2 goals per game

Mexico has kept 4 clean sheets in home games this season

关键球员

Germán Berterame leads Mexico's attack with a season average rating of 6.74

Jeremy Márquez scored 1 goal in his last 5 matches for Mexico

Jairo Vélez is Peru's key threat with 4 goals in 5 games

门将

Óscar García starts in goal for Mexico aiming to maintain defensive strength

Pedro Gallese features for Peru but is yet to record a clean sheet this season

影响因素

The match takes place on a grass surface at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

The venue averages 2.8 total goals per game historically

The model estimates a 46% probability of both teams scoring

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