Friendly International

United States - Peru

09/26/2026, 08:30 PM

4 : 1
预期进球
United States
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Peru
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
xG 分解
USPER

United States

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.17
Antonee Robinson替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Christian Pulisic未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
100%进球产出缺失 (仅14%可用)

Peru

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.24倍)
+0.23
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1球)
+0.13
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.03
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

40%

平局

29%

客胜

31%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

69%

客胜或平局

60%

非平局

71%

双方进球

是

55%

否

45%

关键因素
  • Critical squad impact: Only 14% of the usual starting goal threat is available for the USA as Antonee Robinson (1 goal / 1 assist) and Christian Pulisic (1 goal / 1 assist) are missing
  • Offensive advantage: United States scores consistently, averaging 2.1 goals per game
  • Model prediction: The mathematical advantage lies with the USA with a 40% home win probability
风险因素
  • Severe loss of quality for the USA with only 14% of active goal threat available due to missing Antonee Robinson and Christian Pulisic
  • Limited data availability with no head-to-head history in the database
  • Lack of match practice due to a long break of over 80 days since the last competitive match for both countries
概述

United States host Peru at the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium

International Friendly on September 26, 2026, 10:30 PM

The hosts enter the match as slight favorites with a 40% win probability according to mathematical predictions

近期状态

USA Form: WWLWL with 3 wins and 2 losses

Peru Form: LLDWL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

United States lost their last match 1-4 against Belgium

Peru was defeated 1-3 by Spain in their most recent fixture

统计数据

USA scored an average of 2.2 goals per game this season

Peru averaged only 0.33 goals per game

In home games, USA scored an average of 2.25 goals while conceding 1.25

Peru has conceded 14 goals in away matches so far

关键球员

Cavan Sullivan scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists in his last 5 matches

Peyton Miller recorded 3 goals and 1 assist recently

Justin Ellis provided 4 assists in his last 5 appearances

Jairo Vélez is the top threat for Peru with 4 season goals

Renzo Garcés contributed 1 goal this season

Gianluca Lapadula scored 1 goal in his last 5 games

门将

Matt Freese starts in goal for the USA with an average rating of 6.76

Pedro Gallese guards the net for Peru with a season average rating of 6.40

USA kept 2 clean sheets this season, while Peru secured 5 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium

Home advantage for the USA with a strong home record of 2.25 goals scored per game on average

The mathematical model predicts 1.41 expected goals for the USA and 1.23 for Peru

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