比赛报告 →
AGF – Benfica1 : 3
模型为何这样判断
AGF
1.24
总 xG
2.01
Benfica
0.77
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | AGF | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | −2.23 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的2.33倍) | +1.97 | |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | +0.73 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均3.8球) | +0.48 | |
| 状态上升 (3.8 vs 2.2 赛季平均) | +0.48 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.6球) | −0.27 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | −0.14 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.6 vs 2.1 赛季平均) | −0.14 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1球) | −0.13 | |
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- According to the dataset AGF currently has only 0% of its seasonal goal production available
- Benfica averaged a strong 9.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Benfica is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 3.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.21
风险
- AGF showed defensive weakness recently conceding an average of 2.6 goals per match
- The mathematical model calculates a probability of only 33% for over 2.5 goals
- Limited data availability regarding player form in the provided dataset
全部概率
赛果
AGF46%
平局33%
Benfica22%
进球
大于 1.561%
小于 1.539%
大于 2.533%
小于 2.567%
大于 3.514%
小于 3.586%
双重机会
AGF或平局79%
Benfica或平局54%
非平局67%
双方均进球
是40%
否60%
最可能的比分
0:0
15%
1:0
15%
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:3
最终比分
首发阵容
AGF 3-5-2 · Benfica 4-1-3-2
AGF
- 21 M. Christiansen
- 26 J. Andersen
- 33 L. Callo
- 44 M. Camara
- 29 R. Carstensen
- 16 J. Jønsson
- 10 K. Malt Arnstad
- 23 M. Anderson
- 11 G. Links
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 13 J. Serra
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 14 V. Pavlidis
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
替补
- 25 C. Rosler
- 1 J. Hansen
- 8 S. Jørgensen
- 19 E. Kahl
- 27 S. Tchamche
- 39 F. Emmery Søgaard
- 7 M. Solbakken
- 45 C. Storch
- 14 T. Henriksen
- 4 M. Knudsen
- 28 J. Bogere
- 42 M. van der Raad
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 1 A. Trubin
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 20 R. Rios
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 16 M. Silva
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 3 A. Circati
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 77 G. Carvalho Moreira
- 33 Gabriel Queiroz
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