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Champions League

Napoli - Arsenal

09/09/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Napoli
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Arsenal
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
NAPARS

Napoli

小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.41
排名劣势 (第30位 vs 第1位, 相差29位)
-0.22
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.07
Scott McTominay未进大名单 (4球, 0助攻)
53%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)

Arsenal

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.51
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.2倍)
+0.18
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第30位, 相差29位)
+0.10
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.08
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.01
Kai Havertz替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
Myles Lewis-Skelly替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3球)
+0.47
+0.47
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

29%

客胜

41%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

59%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

71%

双方进球

56%

44%

关键因素
  • Form gap: Arsenal is unbeaten in their last 5 matches while Napoli suffered consecutive defeats
  • Defensive solidity: Arsenal conceded a mere 0.71 goals per game on average this season
  • Tactical attacking output: Arsenal averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
风险因素
  • Short rest: Arsenal faces a fitness disadvantage with only 3 days of recovery since their last game
  • Away defensive regression: Arsenal concedes 1.0 goals per away match compared to only 0.5 at home
  • Key absentee: Napoli is missing the clinical Scott McTominay, leaving them with only 85% of their usual starting strength
概述

Napoli hosts Arsenal at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Champions League fixture on September 9, 2026, 9:00 PM

Mathematical models favor Arsenal with a 41% win probability

Expected goals are calculated at 1.22 for Napoli and 1.46 for the visitors

近期状态

Napoli enters the match with a WWWLL form after suffering two consecutive defeats

Arsenal shows consistent stability with a WDWWW form and three wins in a row

The recent momentum lies with the English side

统计数据

Arsenal averages 1.87 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded per match this season

Napoli records 1.53 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded on average

At home Napoli scored an average of 1.5 goals

历史交锋

Arsenal has won three of the four direct encounters while Napoli won one

The last match-up ended in a 1-0 away victory for Arsenal

关键球员

Kevin De Bruyne leads Napoli with an impressive season rating of 7.21

Bukayo Saka stands out with 3 goals and 2 assists alongside a 7.09 rating

Declan Rice commands the central midfield boasting a season rating of 7.35

门将

Alex Meret played one match this season with a rating of 6.31

David Raya has started 14 games in goal keeping a strong rating of 7.15

Arsenal kept 19 clean sheets over the course of the season

影响因素

The match takes place on natural grass at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game with a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals

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