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Champions League

Liverpool - Atlético de Madrid

09/09/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Liverpool
2.3
Total xG
3.3
Atlético de Madrid
1.1
最可能的比分

2:1

10%

1:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
xG 分解
LIVADM

Liverpool

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.33倍)
+0.69
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.31
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第14位, 相差11位)
+0.12
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.02
Cody Gakpo未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
Ryan Gravenberch替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
20%进球产出缺失 (仅80%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均3.4球 vs 总体1.9球)

Atlético de Madrid

排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第3位, 相差11位)
-0.13
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.11
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.09
Ademola Lookman替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.9球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3球)
+0.47
+0.47
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

63%

平局

21%

客胜

15%

进球数

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

双重机会

主胜或平局

85%

客胜或平局

37%

非平局

79%

双方进球

60%

40%

关键因素
  • Strong home defense: Liverpool allows only 0.95 goals per home game on average, while Atlético struggles away conceding 1.93 on average
  • Squad impact: Liverpool is missing Cody Gakpo and Ryan Gravenberch but retains an active goal share of 80%
  • Tactical control: Liverpool recently dominated with 60.2% possession and averaged 6.2 shots on target per match
风险因素
  • Away defensive instability: Atlético de Madrid concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away game
  • Recovery time: Atlético de Madrid enters this fixture with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Downward trend: Atlético's recent goal production has slowed down to 1.6 compared to their 1.9 season average
概述

Liverpool host Atlético de Madrid at Anfield

Champions League match on September 9, 2026, 8:00 PM

Mathematical analysis favors Liverpool with a 64% win probability

近期状态

Liverpool's form in the last five matches is LDDDW

The home side recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Atlético de Madrid's form is LWDWL with 2 wins and 2 losses

Atlético's trend is currently negative while Liverpool remains stable

Form code explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Liverpool scored an average of 1.66 goals per game this season

In home games, the Reds concede only 0.95 goals on average

Atlético de Madrid score 1.64 goals away but concede an average of 1.93

The model estimates a 65% chance for over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

There have been 5 direct encounters between the teams

Liverpool won 3 matches and Atlético de Madrid won 2

The last meeting on September 17, 2025, ended in a 3-2 victory for Liverpool

关键球员

Dominik Szoboszlai averages 0.54 goals per 90 minutes with a rating of 7.73

Alexander Isak shows a rising trend with 3 goals in his last five matches

Florian Wirtz recorded 1 goal and 3 assists this season with a 7.33 rating

Julián Alvarez leads the line with 10 goals this season and a 7.63 rating

Álex Baena shows an upward form with 2 goals and 1 assist in recent matches

Giuliano Simeone recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last four appearances

门将

Alisson starts in goal for Liverpool with a season rating of 7.00

Jan Oblak plays in goal having secured 14 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match is played on grass at Anfield

Venue stats show an average of 2.8 goals per match and an 80% BTTS rate

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