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Champions League

Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal

09/08/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 2
预期进球
Borussia Dortmund
2.0
Total xG
3.0
Villarreal
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
xG 分解
BDVIL

Borussia Dortmund

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.55
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.28倍)
+0.21
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.18
排名优势 (第17位 vs 第35位, 相差18位)
+0.14
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
-0.03
Jobe Bellingham替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Villarreal

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.62倍)
+0.20
排名劣势 (第35位 vs 第17位, 相差18位)
-0.19
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.14
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.14
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.10
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.7球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.43
+0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

57%

平局

24%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

43%

非平局

76%

双方进球

57%

43%

关键因素
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Dortmund's strong home record meets a vulnerable away defense that concedes 2.08 goals per game on average
  • Form favors Dortmund: The hosts won four of their last five matches, while Villarreal is winless in four matches
  • Offensive power in head-to-head: Dortmund clearly dominated the only previous meeting with a 4-0 victory
风险因素
  • High fatigue risk: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Villarreal's recent scoring trend: The visitors are scoring 2.2 goals per game recently, higher than their season average of 1.7
  • Defensive absences for Dortmund: Key defensive players like R. Bensebaini and E. Can are sidelined with injuries
概述

Borussia Dortmund host Villarreal at the Signal Iduna Park

Champions League match on September 8, 2026, 8:00 PM

Dortmund sits in 9th place, while Villarreal is in 12th

Both teams start this league phase matchday level on points

近期状态

Dortmund shows strong form with four wins in their last five matches

The hosts' form string is LWWWW

Villarreal is in a tougher period with the form string WDDLL

Most recently, the Spanish side suffered two consecutive defeats

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Dortmund scores an average of 2.06 goals per game while conceding 1.00

The Black and Yellows are particularly strong at home, averaging 2.11 home goals per match

Villarreal scores 1.89 goals on average but concedes 2.08 goals per away game

In away games, the visitors kept only 3 clean sheets in 13 matches

历史交锋

There has been one head-to-head match in history

Dortmund won this match 4-0 at home on November 25, 2025

Historical dominance is clearly on the side of the home team

关键球员

Serhou Guirassy scored 4 goals in the last 5 games with rising form

Felix Nmecha has scored 3 goals this season in the Borussia midfield

Georges Mikautadze has scored twice in his last 4 matches for the visitors

门将

Gregor Kobel guards the goal for Borussia with a season average rating of 6.65

Péter Gulácsi starts in goal for Villarreal

Dortmund recorded 15 clean sheets this season, compared to Villarreal's 8

影响因素

Home advantage favors Dortmund at the Signal Iduna Park, conceding just 0.84 goals per home game

The match will be played on natural grass

Historically, matches at this venue average 3.4 total goals per game

Both teams face a short recovery period with only 3 days since their last match

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