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Europa League

Juventus - NEC Nijmegen

09/17/2026, 07:00 PM

5 : 0
预期进球
Juventus
1.3
Total xG
2.0
NEC Nijmegen
0.8
最可能的比分

1:0

15%

0:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
JUVNN

Juventus

小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
-1.11
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.51
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.05
全员可用

NEC Nijmegen

防守不足 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1球)
+0.65
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.43倍)
-0.40
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.28
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.28
小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
+0.14
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

33%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

67%

双方进球

40%

60%

关键因素
  • Tactical dominance: Juventus averaged 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Offensive decline: NEC Nijmegen averaged only 1.2 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 2.12
  • Defensive stability: Juventus concedes an average of only 0.73 goals per game at home
风险因素
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history and current player form statistics
  • Low offensive threat from NEC Nijmegen with an average of only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Extensive injury list for Juventus including sidelined players like K. Yildiz and M. Locatelli
概述

Juventus hosts NEC Nijmegen in the Europa League

Match on September 17, 2026, 9:00 PM at the Juventus Stadium

The home team occupies 24th place, while the visitors are in 14th

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 46%

Expected goals are calculated at 1.25 for Juventus and 0.76 for Nijmegen

近期状态

Juventus shows a stable form trend with the form string DWWDL

Their record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Nijmegen is on a negative trend with the form string LWLDL

The visitors have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

统计数据

Juventus scores an average of 1.61 goals and concedes 0.89 goals per game

At home, their conceded goals average drops to 0.73 per match

NEC Nijmegen averages 2.26 goals scored but concedes 1.56 goals per game

On the road, the Dutch side concedes an average of 1.75 goals per match

关键球员

Nico González has scored 1 goal at the venue with an average rating of 7.35

Weston McKennie has registered 7 goals and 3 assists in 26 home matches for Juventus

Douglas Luiz boasts a strong average rating of 7.50 at the home stadium

门将

Kamil Grabara starts in goal for Juventus

Nikolas Polster defends the goal for NEC Nijmegen

Juventus has kept 16 clean sheets throughout the season

Nijmegen recorded only 5 clean sheets in total

影响因素

Home advantage favors Juventus with only 0.73 goals conceded per home game

Matches at the Juventus Stadium averaged 2.0 goals per game over the last 5 matches

The rate for over 2.5 goals at this venue is 0%

The match will be played on natural grass

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