Europa League
AC Milan - Benfica
09/16/2026, 07:00 PM
预期进球
1.3
3.0
1.7
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
AC Milan
Benfica
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
29%
平局
27%
客胜
44%
进球数
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
双重机会
主胜或平局
56%
客胜或平局
71%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
61%
否
39%
关键因素
- Exceptional form of Benfica with 5 consecutive wins recently compared to the inconsistent form of AC Milan
- Benfica showed great dominance recently, averaging 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical model favors Benfica with a calculated win probability of 44%
风险因素
- Massive squad impact for Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis, Rafa Silva, Clément Lenglet, Gianluca Prestianni, Leandro Barreiro, and Alexander Bah are missing, leaving only 24% of the usual starting line-up strength available
- Limited data availability regarding player statistics for the home team AC Milan
- Benfica has a physical disadvantage compared to AC Milan with only 3 days of rest since their last match
概述
AC Milan (9th place, 0 points) host Benfica (8th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Europa League match on September 16, 2026, 9:00 PM
Both teams start this league phase without any points
Benfica is slightly favored by the model with a 44% win probability
近期状态
AC Milan has a form of LWWDD with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Recently, they recorded two consecutive draws
Benfica travels with a perfect form of WWWWW
The Portuguese side is on a run of 5 consecutive wins
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
AC Milan scored an average of 1.39 goals and conceded 0.92 in 38 league matches
Benfica averages 2.18 goals scored and 0.74 goals conceded per game
AC Milan concedes an average of 1.17 goals in home matches
Benfica shows offensive strength with 2.2 goals scored per away game
In 24 of Benfica's 34 matches, there were over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
There have been 2 head-to-head matches in history
AC Milan recorded 1 win, and 1 match ended in a draw
The goal difference stands at 3:2 in favor of AC Milan
The last meeting ended 1:1 on November 28, 2007
关键球员
Davide Bartesaghi scored 2 goals in 24 matches at this stadium
Gonçalo Ramos scored 1 goal in 2 home matches
Tomás Araújo has recorded 1 goal and a rating of 7.64 this season
门将
Mike Maignan is in goal for AC Milan and recorded 15 clean sheets this season
Anatoliy Trubin guards the goal for Benfica and kept 14 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The Giuseppe Meazza is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.6 goals per match
Both teams scored in 80% of the recent matches played at this stadium
Benfica has to play again after just 3 days of rest