🇪🇺

Europa League

AC Milan - Benfica

09/16/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
预期进球
AC Milan
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Benfica
1.7
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
AMBEN

AC Milan

小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
+0.87
防守不足 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.83
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.03
全员可用

Benfica

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.79倍)
+1.43
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.80
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3球)
+0.22
状态上升 (3 vs 2.3 赛季平均)
+0.22
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1球)
-0.15
Vangelis Pavlidis替补席 (6球, 1助攻)
Rafa Silva替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
Clément Lenglet 替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Gianluca Prestianni替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Leandro Barreiro替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Alexander Bah未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
81%进球产出缺失 (仅24%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体2.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

29%

平局

27%

客胜

44%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

双重机会

主胜或平局

56%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

73%

双方进球

61%

39%

关键因素
  • Exceptional form of Benfica with 5 consecutive wins recently compared to the inconsistent form of AC Milan
  • Benfica showed great dominance recently, averaging 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical model favors Benfica with a calculated win probability of 44%
风险因素
  • Massive squad impact for Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis, Rafa Silva, Clément Lenglet, Gianluca Prestianni, Leandro Barreiro, and Alexander Bah are missing, leaving only 24% of the usual starting line-up strength available
  • Limited data availability regarding player statistics for the home team AC Milan
  • Benfica has a physical disadvantage compared to AC Milan with only 3 days of rest since their last match
概述

AC Milan (9th place, 0 points) host Benfica (8th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Europa League match on September 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams start this league phase without any points

Benfica is slightly favored by the model with a 44% win probability

近期状态

AC Milan has a form of LWWDD with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Recently, they recorded two consecutive draws

Benfica travels with a perfect form of WWWWW

The Portuguese side is on a run of 5 consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

AC Milan scored an average of 1.39 goals and conceded 0.92 in 38 league matches

Benfica averages 2.18 goals scored and 0.74 goals conceded per game

AC Milan concedes an average of 1.17 goals in home matches

Benfica shows offensive strength with 2.2 goals scored per away game

In 24 of Benfica's 34 matches, there were over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in history

AC Milan recorded 1 win, and 1 match ended in a draw

The goal difference stands at 3:2 in favor of AC Milan

The last meeting ended 1:1 on November 28, 2007

关键球员

Davide Bartesaghi scored 2 goals in 24 matches at this stadium

Gonçalo Ramos scored 1 goal in 2 home matches

Tomás Araújo has recorded 1 goal and a rating of 7.64 this season

门将

Mike Maignan is in goal for AC Milan and recorded 15 clean sheets this season

Anatoliy Trubin guards the goal for Benfica and kept 14 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The Giuseppe Meazza is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the recent matches played at this stadium

Benfica has to play again after just 3 days of rest

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。