Serie A
Fiorentina - Cagliari
01/24/2026, 05:00 PM
预期进球
1.7
2.7
1.0
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
58%
平局
31%
客胜
11%
进球数
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
14%
双重机会
主胜或平局
89%
客胜或平局
42%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
34%
否
66%
关键因素
- Cagliari's severe injury crisis: The absence of several key attacking players, including Belotti, Luvumbo, and Felici, significantly weakens their offense
- Fiorentina's historical dominance: The home team has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches and lost none, giving them a clear psychological advantage
- Defensive vulnerability meets weakened attack: While both teams are defensively frail (over 1.4 goals conceded per game), Fiorentina should benefit from Cagliari's heavily depleted attack
风险因素
- Fiorentina's own absences: The loss of top scorer Moise Kean (5 goals) could hamper Fiorentina's own attacking prowess
- Fiorentina's poor home record: With only one clean sheet in 13 home games and an average of 1.15 goals conceded per game, they could offer chances even to a weakened Cagliari side
- Statistical contradiction: Recent matches at the venue have been high-scoring (3.0 avg goals, 80% BTTS), which contradicts the current offensive weakness of both teams due to injuries
概述
Fiorentina (18th place, 17 points) hosts Cagliari (15th place, 22 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi
This is a crucial Serie A relegation battle scheduled for January 24, 2026, at 6:00 PM
Fiorentina is under pressure to close the five-point gap to Cagliari to escape the relegation zone
近期状态
Fiorentina: LWDDW - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last five games
Cagliari: WLDLW - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in the last five games
Both teams have mixed form, with Fiorentina picking up points a bit more consistently in recent matches
统计数据
Both attacks are nearly level with 1.1 goals per game (Fiorentina) and 1.05 (Cagliari)
Defensively, Fiorentina concedes an average of 1.52 goals per game, while Cagliari concedes 1.43
A key difference is Cagliari's weakness away from home, where they concede an average of 1.55 goals, compared to Fiorentina's 1.15 at home
历史交锋
In the last 5 direct encounters, Fiorentina has been clearly dominant with 4 wins, while Cagliari has not won a single match, securing 1 draw
The goal difference is 10:4 in favor of Fiorentina
The last meeting in August 2025 ended in a 1-1 draw
关键球员
Albert Gudmundsson has 4 goals and 3 assists for the season so far and is showing rising form
Rolando Mandragora is a goal-scoring threat from midfield with 6 seasonal goals
Nicolò Fagioli has contributed 3 assists and his form trend is also on the rise
Luca Mazzitelli has scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in his last 5 games
Semih Kılıçsoy is an offensive option with 2 goals this season
Goalkeeper Elia Caprile has shown strong recent performances with an average rating of 7.22
门将
The goalkeeping matchup is David de Gea versus Elia Caprile
David de Gea has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Elia Caprile has kept his goal clean 4 times and has a slightly higher average season rating of 7.05 compared to de Gea's 6.76
影响因素
The Stadio Artemio Franchi has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 80% of these games, both teams scored
However, Fiorentina struggles to maintain defensive stability at home, with only one clean sheet in 13 home fixtures