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Serie A

Roma - Juventus

03/01/2026, 07:45 PM

3 : 3
预期进球
Roma
2.3
Total xG
3.5
Juventus
1.2
最可能的比分

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
xG 分解
ROMJUV

Roma

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.44倍)
+1.65
防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.56
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.06
Matías Soulé未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Paulo Dybala未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Evan Ferguson未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
50%进球产出缺失 (仅50%可用)

Juventus

防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.14
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.59倍)
-0.07
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.01
Kenan Yıldız未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Bremer未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
51%进球产出缺失 (仅44%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

62%

平局

21%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

双重机会

主胜或平局

83%

客胜或平局

38%

非平局

79%

双方进球

63%

37%

关键因素
  • Both teams are significantly weakened by the absence of key offensive players, with only 50% (Roma) and 44% (Juventus) of their usual goal threat available
  • Roma's exceptional home defense (only 0.4 goals conceded per game) meets Juventus's potent away attack (1.64 goals per game)
  • Current form clearly favors Roma, who are unbeaten in three games, while Juventus is in a crisis, supporting the 62% win probability for the home team
风险因素
  • Juventus is missing a large part of its offensive power with players like Kenan Yıldız and Bremer absent; only 44% of the season's goals are available in the squad
  • Roma also has to do without key attackers like Matías Soulé and Paulo Dybala, leaving only 50% of their goal threat on the pitch
  • Despite their poor current form, Juventus has remained unbeaten against Roma in the last five head-to-head meetings
概述

At the Stadio Olimpico, Roma (4th place, 50 points) hosts Juventus (6th place, 46 points) for a crucial Serie A clash

The match will take place on March 1, 2026, at 8:45 PM

Both teams are fighting for European spots, with Roma looking to extend their lead with a win

The mathematical analysis favors Roma with a 62% win probability

近期状态

Roma is in solid form with a record of WDWLD from their last five matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Juventus, on the other hand, is struggling with its form, showing a record of WLLLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Roma is unbeaten in their last three games, while Juventus is going through a difficult phase despite their most recent win

统计数据

Juventus has been stronger offensively this season, averaging 1.65 goals per game compared to Roma's 1.31

Defensively, however, Roma is a force, especially at home where they concede only 0.4 goals per game, while their season average is a strong 0.62 goals conceded

Juventus concedes an average of 1.18 goals per away game

Roma's matches tend to be lower-scoring (only 7 of 26 games with over 2.5 goals), while Juventus's games see more goals more often (12 of 26 games with over 2.5 goals)

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Juventus has had the upper hand

The record stands at 2 wins for Juventus, 3 draws, and no wins for Roma

The goal difference is 5:3 in favor of Juventus

The last meeting was won by Juventus with a score of 2:1

关键球员

For Roma, Donyell Malen stands out with 5 season goals in just 6 appearances, while Lorenzo Pellegrini directs the midfield with 3 goals and 1 assist

Bryan Cristante is a stalwart in midfield

For Juventus, Jonathan David (5 goals, 4 assists) and Weston McKennie (4 goals, 4 assists) are the key offensive players

Pierre Kalulu supports the play from defense with 2 goals and 3 assists

门将

Roma's goalkeeper Mile Svilar can rely on a strong defense that has kept 12 clean sheets this season

Michele Di Gregorio of Juventus has kept 9 clean sheets so far this season

影响因素

The home advantage for Roma is significant, reflected in their impressive defensive record at the Stadio Olimpico (only 6 goals conceded in 15 home games)

The last five matches at this stadium have seen an average of 2.8 goals per game

Both teams are accustomed to the natural grass surface at the stadium

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