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Serie A

Parma - Cagliari

02/27/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Parma
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Cagliari
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
xG 分解
PARCAG

Parma

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍)
-0.01
防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)

Cagliari

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.73倍)
+0.21
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.02
Gianluca Gaetano未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
50%进球产出缺失 (仅50%可用)
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

34%

平局

31%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

66%

非平局

70%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Cagliari is severely weakened: Due to absences, only 50% of the seasonal goal threat is available, with key player Gianluca Gaetano (2 goals/3 assists) missing
  • Form versus history: Parma is on the rise with three consecutive wins, while the historical record clearly favors Cagliari
  • Low-scoring match expected: Both teams have offensive problems, supported by low expected goals (1.23 vs 1.25) and a low probability for over 2.5 goals (45%)
风险因素
  • Parma's home weakness: With only 0.71 goals per home game, Parma struggles to create danger in their own stadium
  • Cagliari's away defense: The visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals on the road
  • Extremely open game: The mathematical prediction shows an almost identical win probability for both teams (34% vs 35%)
概述

Parma (12th place, 32 points) host Cagliari (13th place, 29 points) at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

Serie A match on February 27, 2026, 8:45 PM

A direct duel between two mid-table neighbors

近期状态

Parma: Form LLWWW (3 wins, 2 losses in the last 5 matches)

The team is on a 3-game winning streak, including a 1-0 away win against AC Milan

Cagliari: Form WWLLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in the last 5 matches)

Cagliari is winless in 3 games and has failed to score a single goal in those matches

统计数据

With only 19 goals in 26 games, Parma has one of the weakest attacks in the league (avg 0.73 goals per game)

Cagliari is slightly stronger offensively (avg 1.08 goals) but more vulnerable defensively (avg 1.35 goals conceded)

Cagliari's defense is particularly weak away, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game

Parma has failed to score in 12 of 26 season matches

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma has not won a single game

Cagliari won 4 times, with one draw

The goal difference is clearly in favor of Cagliari with 10:5 goals

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for Cagliari

关键球员

Mateo Pellegrino is Parma's top scorer with 7 season goals

Adrián Bernabé is an important midfielder for Parma with 3 goals and one assist

For Cagliari, Semih Kılıçsoy is a source of hope in attack with 4 goals

Sebastiano Esposito has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists and is a key player in the offense

门将

Parma goalkeeper Edoardo Corvi is in goal

Cagliari relies on Elia Caprile

Parma has kept 9 clean sheets this season

Cagliari has managed this 6 times

影响因素

Parma has a weak goal record at home with only 10 goals in 14 home games

Recent matches at the Stadio Ennio Tardini have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 fixtures

Both teams scored in only 2 of Parma's last 5 home matches

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