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Serie A

Cremonese - AC Milan

03/01/2026, 11:30 AM

0 : 2
预期进球
Cremonese
0.8
Total xG
2.4
AC Milan
1.6
最可能的比分

0:1

13%

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%
xG 分解
CREAM

Cremonese

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.59倍)
-0.58
防守不足 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.44
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.24
状态下滑 (0.2 vs 1 赛季平均)
-0.23
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第2位, 相差14位)
-0.12
Jamie Vardy未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
52%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用)

AC Milan

排名优势 (第2位 vs 第16位, 相差14位)
+0.11
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.07
Christopher Nkunku未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1.6球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

16%

平局

28%

客胜

56%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

44%

客胜或平局

84%

非平局

72%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • Offensive weakness at Cremonese: According to analysis, due to absences including Jamie Vardy, only 48% of the usual goal threat is available
  • Clear difference in quality and form: Second-placed AC Milan faces the sixteenth-placed team, which is winless in five games
  • Milan's defensive strength: The Rossoneri have one of the best defensive lines in the league, especially away with only 0.6 goals conceded per game
风险因素
  • Surprising H2H record: Cremonese is unbeaten in the last three direct encounters against AC Milan (1 win, 2 draws)
  • Milan's faltering offense: According to the data, Milan's goal production has recently declined slightly, from 1.6 to 1.4 goals per game
概述

Cremonese (16th place, 24 points) host AC Milan (2nd place, 54 points) at the Stadio Giovanni Zini

The Serie A match takes place on March 1, 2026, at 12:30 PM

The Rossoneri are clear favorites and aim to secure points in the title race, while Cremonese is fighting relegation

The mathematical analysis supports this with a 56% win probability for the visitors

近期状态

Cremonese's form is LLLDL (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss)

In the last 5 games, there have been no wins, one draw, and four losses

AC Milan's form is DWWDL

They have secured 2 wins and 2 draws with one loss from their last five matches

统计数据

AC Milan has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 1.58 goals per game compared to Cremonese's 0.81

AC Milan is particularly strong defensively away from home, conceding only 0.6 goals on average

Cremonese's attack is weak at home, scoring just 0.79 goals per game

The home team failed to score in 13 of 26 league games, while AC Milan failed to score in only two

历史交锋

In the last 3 direct encounters, Cremonese has a surprisingly positive record

They won once, while AC Milan remained winless, and 2 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is 3-2 in favor of Cremonese

The last meeting was won by Cremonese with a score of 2-1

关键球员

For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli is the top scorer with 5 goals this season

For AC Milan, attackers Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão are crucial with 8 goals each

In midfield, Adrien Rabiot directs the play with 4 goals and 4 assists

门将

The duel between the goalkeepers features Emil Audero for Cremonese and Mike Maignan for AC Milan

Maignan has already kept 11 clean sheets this season

Audero has 7 clean sheets to his name

影响因素

AC Milan has an excellent away record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game

Cremonese's home advantage is minimal, with only 0.79 goals scored per home game

The statistics for the Stadio Giovanni Zini suggest a tendency for low-scoring matches, with an average of just 1.6 goals in recent games

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