Serie A
Napoli - Torino
03/06/2026, 07:45 PM
预期进球
1.8
2.8
1.0
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
6%3:0
6%xG 分解
Napoli
Torino
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
54%
平局
26%
客胜
20%
进球数
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
双重机会
主胜或平局
80%
客胜或平局
46%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
55%
否
45%
关键因素
- Pipeline probability: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 54%
- Offensive strength vs. defensive weakness: Napoli's stronger home offense (1.5 goals/game) meets Torino's vulnerable away defense (2.08 goals conceded/game)
- Form trend: Napoli is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game)
风险因素
- Injury absences: Napoli is affected by absences, including Scott McTominay (6G/3A), Stanislav Lobotka (1G/1A), and Amir Rrahmani (1G/1A)
- Historical record: Torino won the last direct encounter with 1-0
- Defensive orientation: Torino is counter-oriented (43% possession) and averages 3.6 shots on target
概述
Napoli (3rd place, 53 points) host Torino (14th place, 30 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The Serie A match is scheduled for March 6, 2026, 8:45 PM. Napoli aims to consolidate their position in the top half of the table and qualify for the Champions League.
近期状态
Napoli's recent form is WDDLW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their last match was a win (W) against Hellas Verona. Napoli is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game). Torino's form is LDLLW, indicating 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches. Their last game was a win (W) against Lazio. Torino scores consistently (~1.2 goals per game).
统计数据
Napoli averages 1.52 goals scored per game and concedes 1.04 goals. In home games, they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded. The team kept 9 clean sheets this season, with 4 of them at home. Torino averages 1.0 goal scored per game and concedes 1.74 goals. In away games, they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.08 goals conceded. Torino kept 10 clean sheets this season, with 5 of them away. At the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, an average of 3.0 total goals per game are scored. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches.
历史交锋
In the 5 head-to-head matches played, Napoli secured 2 wins, there was 1 draw, and Torino claimed 2 victories. Napoli scored 4 goals in these encounters, while Torino netted 5 times. The last direct encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 1-0 away win for Torino. The recent head-to-head record between these teams is even.
关键球员
For Napoli, Rasmus Højland is a key player with 9 goals and 2 assists this season. He scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games, showing a rising form trend. Antonio Vergara contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 appearances, also with a rising form trend. Alisson Santos recorded 1 goal this season and 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games. For Torino, Nikola Vlašić is notable with 6 goals and 3 assists this season. He provided 1 assist in his last 5 games and his form trend is rising. Giovanni Simeone has scored 6 goals this season. Duván Zapata contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season.
门将
Napoli's goalkeeper, Vanja Milinković-Savić, has made 19 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.76. His team achieved 9 clean sheets. For Torino, Alberto Paleari has played in 18 games with an average rating of 6.81. His team kept 10 clean sheets.
影响因素
The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games. Napoli scores an average of 1.5 goals per home game and concedes 0.79 goals, indicating a home advantage. Torino concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game, showing their vulnerability on the road.